Dijon vs Boulogne – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Boulogne at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dijon vs Boulogne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dijon and Boulogne meet at in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Friday 30 April 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Dijon (all games): 0W 2D 2L across 4 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Dijon have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Boulogne's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 0W 5D 5L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Boulogne have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Boulogne's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.50 PPG for Dijon against 0.50 for Boulogne. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Dijon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games.
Boulogne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 75% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dijon 75% versus Boulogne 25%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dijon 25% | Boulogne 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dijon 0.83 xG and Boulogne 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dijon attack 0.857 / defence 1.243 | Boulogne attack 0.680 / defence 0.804. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.253. Data: 4 Dijon games / 38 Boulogne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dijon 26% | Draw 35% | Boulogne 38%. Fair-value odds: Dijon 3.85 | Draw 2.86 | Boulogne 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Boulogne as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Boulogne if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.89 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Dijon 75% | Boulogne 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dijon vs Boulogne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: • Kick-off: Friday 30 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dijon 26% | Draw 35% | Boulogne 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 39% | xG Dijon 0.83 / Boulogne 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Dijon attack 0.857 / def 1.243 | Boulogne attack 0.680 / def 0.804 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Boulogne (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Dijon xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Boulogne xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dijon vs Boulogne kick off?
Dijon vs Boulogne is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 30 April 2027.
What competition is Dijon vs Boulogne part of?
Dijon vs Boulogne is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dijon vs Boulogne?
Our statistical model gives Dijon a 26% chance of winning, Boulogne a 38% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Boulogne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dijon vs Boulogne?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Dijon and Boulogne will score (BTTS).
Will Dijon vs Boulogne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Boulogne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dijon and Boulogne in?
Dijon (all comps): 0W-2D-2L in 4 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L. Boulogne (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dijon's attack rating (0.86) and Boulogne's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 0.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Boulogne's attack (0.68x) against Dijon's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 4/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Boulogne Win
26%
3.79
35%
2.84
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Dijon xG
Total xG
1.89
1.06
Boulogne xG
3.79
26%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
43%
2.30
Win to Nil
9%
10.92
17%
5.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.1 | 16.0 | 8.4 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.3 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dijon vs Boulogne?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Dijon and Boulogne expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Dijon and 1.06 for Boulogne, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Dijon vs Boulogne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dijon come into this having played 4 games, going 0W 2D 2L for 0.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Dijon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Boulogne sit at 0.75 PPG from 4 outings (0W 3D 1L), a run that reads D-L-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Boulogne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.50 PPG for Dijon against 0.75 for Boulogne. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Dijon are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Boulogne are on 0.25 scored and 0.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dijon have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Boulogne in 25%.
Defensively: Boulogne in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dijon
Early Season
Boulogne
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dijon and Boulogne in coming into this match?
Dijon have gone 0W 2D 2L in their last 4 games (0.50 PPG), while Boulogne have gone 0W 3D 1L in their last 4 (0.75 PPG).
Have Dijon or Boulogne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dijon have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Boulogne in 50%.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dijon tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Boulogne tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dijon 75%, Boulogne 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Dijon and 0% for Boulogne.
On the defensive side: Boulogne in 50%; Boulogne in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dijon home games / Boulogne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dijon play Boulogne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Dijon's recent matches and 25% of Boulogne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dijon vs Boulogne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Dijon's recent games and 0% of Boulogne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dijon and Boulogne tend to score early?
Dijon have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Boulogne in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.