Dijon vs Boulogne – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Boulogne at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dijon vs Boulogne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dijon and Boulogne meet at in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Friday 30 April 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Dijon (all games): 3W 3D 3L across 9 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.33 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.78 goals per game, with 1.78 conceded. Both teams have scored in 89% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Dijon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dijon's form when playing at home: 2W 0D 2L across 4 games at this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.25 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Boulogne's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 1W 6D 3L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Boulogne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Boulogne's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.33 PPG for Dijon against 0.90 for Boulogne. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Dijon lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Sep 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Dijon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Boulogne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 44% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dijon 89% and Boulogne 44% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dijon 56% | Boulogne 11%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dijon 1.17 xG and Boulogne 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dijon attack 1.229 / defence 1.360 | Boulogne attack 0.788 / defence 0.694. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.317. Boulogne's defence strength of 0.694 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 9 Dijon games / 43 Boulogne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dijon 31% | Draw 27% | Boulogne 42%. Fair-value odds: Dijon 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Boulogne 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Boulogne as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Boulogne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Dijon 75% | Boulogne 20%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dijon vs Boulogne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: • Kick-off: Friday 30 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dijon 31% | Draw 27% | Boulogne 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Dijon 1.17 / Boulogne 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Dijon attack 1.229 / def 1.360 | Boulogne attack 0.788 / def 0.694 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Boulogne (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Dijon xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Boulogne xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dijon vs Boulogne kick off?
Dijon vs Boulogne is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 30 April 2027.
What competition is Dijon vs Boulogne part of?
Dijon vs Boulogne is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dijon vs Boulogne?
Our statistical model gives Dijon a 31% chance of winning, Boulogne a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Boulogne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dijon vs Boulogne?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Dijon and Boulogne will score (BTTS).
Will Dijon vs Boulogne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Boulogne?
Record (1 meetings): Dijon 0W | Draws 1 | Boulogne 0W.
What form are Dijon and Boulogne in?
Dijon (all comps): 3W-3D-3L in 9 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.78 / GA 1.78 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Boulogne (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dijon's attack rating (1.23) and Boulogne's defence rating (0.69), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Boulogne's attack (0.79x) against Dijon's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 9/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Boulogne Win
31%
3.28
27%
3.65
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Dijon xG
Total xG
2.58
1.41
Boulogne xG
3.28
31%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
7%
13.42
13%
7.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.7 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.5 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dijon vs Boulogne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Dijon and Boulogne expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Dijon and 1.41 for Boulogne, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Dijon vs Boulogne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dijon come into this having played 9 games, going 3W 3D 3L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Dijon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Boulogne sit at 1.00 PPG from 9 outings (1W 6D 2L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Boulogne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Dijon against 1.00 for Boulogne. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Dijon's home form reads 2W 0D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Boulogne have taken 1.50 points per game from 4 outings (1W 3D 0L). That's actually stronger than their 1.00 PPG overall record — Boulogne travel well.
Attack vs Defence
Dijon are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Boulogne are on 0.67 scored and 0.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dijon have seen both teams score in 89% of their recent games.
Defensively: Boulogne in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dijon
Blended
Boulogne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dijon and Boulogne in coming into this match?
Dijon have gone 3W 3D 3L in their last 9 games (1.33 PPG), while Boulogne have gone 1W 6D 2L in their last 9 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dijon at home or Boulogne away?
Dijon's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dijon at home: 1.50 PPG; Boulogne away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Dijon or Boulogne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dijon have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Boulogne in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 4 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Dijon
1
Draws
0
Boulogne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Boulogne?
From 1 meetings on record, Dijon have won 0, Boulogne have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dijon and Boulogne last play each other?
They last met on 4 September 2026, when Boulogne 1-1 Dijon.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Boulogne tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dijon 75%, Boulogne 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Dijon) and 0% (Boulogne).
On the defensive side: Boulogne in 75%; Boulogne in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dijon home games / Boulogne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dijon play Boulogne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Dijon's recent matches and 25% of Boulogne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dijon vs Boulogne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Dijon's recent games and 0% of Boulogne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dijon and Boulogne tend to score early?
Dijon have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Boulogne in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.