Dijon 0-3 Bordeaux – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dijon at 52%, yet in-form Bordeaux provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dijon vs Bordeaux fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 20 as Dijon welcome Bordeaux to Stade Gaston-Gérard. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 January 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dijon stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dijon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dijon's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Stade Gaston-Gérard this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Dijon are significantly better at Stade Gaston-Gérard than their overall form suggests.
Bordeaux — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bordeaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bordeaux away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bordeaux are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Dijon, 1 for Bordeaux and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2022, ended 1–2 with Bordeaux winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Dijon trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Bordeaux trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dijon 54% versus Bordeaux 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dijon 54% | Bordeaux 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dijon 1.56 xG and Bordeaux 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dijon attack 1.242 / defence 0.963 | Bordeaux attack 0.946 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.165 / away 1.038. Data: 57 Dijon games / 19 Bordeaux games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dijon 52% | Draw 26% | Bordeaux 23%. Fair-value odds: Dijon 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Bordeaux 4.35. Dijon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dijon as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bordeaux (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dijon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Dijon 50% | Bordeaux 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dijon vs Bordeaux | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stade Gaston-Gérard • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Jan 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dijon 52% | Draw 26% | Bordeaux 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Dijon 1.56 / Bordeaux 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Dijon attack 1.242 / def 0.963 | Bordeaux attack 0.946 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.165 / away 1.038 • Poisson stance: Dijon (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Dijon xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Bordeaux xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dijon vs Bordeaux kick off?
Dijon vs Bordeaux kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 28 January 2023 at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What was the final score in Dijon vs Bordeaux?
Dijon 0 - 3 Bordeaux.
Where is Dijon vs Bordeaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What competition is Dijon vs Bordeaux part of?
Dijon vs Bordeaux is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dijon vs Bordeaux?
Our statistical model gives Dijon a 52% chance of winning, Bordeaux a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Dijon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dijon vs Bordeaux?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Dijon and Bordeaux will score (BTTS).
Will Dijon vs Bordeaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Bordeaux?
Record (1 meetings): Dijon 0W | Draws 0 | Bordeaux 1W.
What form are Dijon and Bordeaux in?
Dijon (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Bordeaux (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Dijon's attack rating (1.24) and Bordeaux's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bordeaux's attack versus Dijon's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dijon Win
52%
1.94
26%
3.90
23%
4.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Dijon xG
Total xG
2.51
0.95
Bordeaux xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
4.40
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
21%
4.77
Win to Nil
20%
4.99
5%
20.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.0 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dijon vs Bordeaux?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Dijon and Bordeaux expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Dijon and 0.95 for Bordeaux, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Dijon vs Bordeaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, Dijon have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 18W 14D 25L record — D-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Dijon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bordeaux's form line: 15W 19D 23L from 57 games, 1.12 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-D. The sample for Bordeaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dijon on 1.19 PPG, Bordeaux on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Dijon have posted 1.54 PPG from 28 outings (12W 7D 9L).
On the road, Bordeaux have gone 6W 9D 13L from 28 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dijon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dijon are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Bordeaux are on 1.35 scored and 1.84 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dijon
Blended
Bordeaux
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dijon and Bordeaux in coming into this match?
Dijon have gone 18W 14D 25L in their last 57 games (1.19 PPG), while Bordeaux have gone 15W 19D 23L in their last 57 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dijon at home or Bordeaux away?
Dijon's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dijon at home: 1.54 PPG; Bordeaux away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dijon and Bordeaux runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Dijon
0
Draws
2
Bordeaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Bordeaux?
From 2 meetings on record, Dijon have won 0, Bordeaux have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dijon and Bordeaux last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2023, when Dijon 0-3 Bordeaux.
Who has won more matches between Dijon and Bordeaux?
Bordeaux have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dijon 46%, Bordeaux 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Dijon) and 71% (Bordeaux). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dijon keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Dijon have failed to score in 29% of games; Bordeaux in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dijon home games / Bordeaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dijon play Bordeaux?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Dijon's recent matches and 61% of Bordeaux's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dijon vs Bordeaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Dijon's matches and 71% of Bordeaux's.
Do Dijon and Bordeaux tend to score early?
Dijon have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Bordeaux in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bordeaux run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Dijon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bordeaux beat Dijon 0-3 at Stade Gaston-Gérard, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dijon 1.56 xG and Bordeaux 0.95 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Dijon fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Bordeaux outscored their 0.95 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dijon attack 1.24 / defence 0.96 against Bordeaux attack 0.95 / defence 1.08, drawn from 57/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dijon 52% | Draw 26% | Bordeaux 23%, with Dijon to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Bordeaux win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dijon 54%, Bordeaux 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dijon's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bordeaux's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dijon 1.19 PPG, Bordeaux 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bordeaux win broke the near-deadlock. Dijon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bordeaux (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.