Concarneau 2-3 Guingamp – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Guingamp at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Concarneau vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Stade Francis-Le Blé plays host to Concarneau versus Guingamp in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Saturday 9 March 2024 at 18:00 UTC.

Current Form

Concarneau's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Concarneau, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Concarneau's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Stade Francis-Le Blé this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Guingamp (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Guingamp have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Concarneau 1W, Guingamp 0W, 0D.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2023, ended 1–0 with Concarneau winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Concarneau goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

Guingamp goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 41% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Concarneau 37% versus Guingamp 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Concarneau 44% | Guingamp 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Concarneau 1.01 xG and Guingamp 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Concarneau attack 0.925 / defence 1.413 | Guingamp attack 0.849 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.076. Data: 27 Concarneau games / 65 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Concarneau 28% | Draw 29% | Guingamp 42%. Fair-value odds: Concarneau 3.57 | Draw 3.45 | Guingamp 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Guingamp as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guingamp if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Concarneau 60% | Guingamp 20% BTTS from recent games.

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