Concarneau 4-2 Bordeaux – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Bordeaux at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Concarneau vs Bordeaux encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Concarneau and Bordeaux meet at Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 37. This fixture gets under way on Friday 10 May 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Concarneau have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Concarneau's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Concarneau are significantly better at Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat than their overall form suggests.
Bordeaux's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Bordeaux away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Bordeaux arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Concarneau, 1 for Bordeaux and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2023, ended 0–1 with Bordeaux winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Concarneau goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Bordeaux goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Concarneau 39% versus Bordeaux 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Concarneau 44% | Bordeaux 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Concarneau 1.19 xG and Bordeaux 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Concarneau attack 0.818 / defence 1.346 | Bordeaux attack 0.912 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.146. Data: 36 Concarneau games / 73 Bordeaux games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Concarneau 31% | Draw 27% | Bordeaux 42%. Fair-value odds: Concarneau 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Bordeaux 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bordeaux as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bordeaux if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Concarneau 50% | Bordeaux 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Concarneau vs Bordeaux | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat • Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Concarneau 31% | Draw 27% | Bordeaux 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Concarneau 1.19 / Bordeaux 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Concarneau attack 0.818 / def 1.346 | Bordeaux attack 0.912 / def 1.178 | league avg home 1.231 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Bordeaux (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Concarneau xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Bordeaux xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Concarneau vs Bordeaux kick off?
Concarneau vs Bordeaux kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 10 May 2024 at Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat.
What was the final score in Concarneau vs Bordeaux?
Concarneau 4 - 2 Bordeaux.
Where is Concarneau vs Bordeaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat.
What competition is Concarneau vs Bordeaux part of?
Concarneau vs Bordeaux is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Concarneau vs Bordeaux?
Our statistical model gives Concarneau a 31% chance of winning, Bordeaux a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bordeaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Concarneau vs Bordeaux?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Concarneau and Bordeaux will score (BTTS).
Will Concarneau vs Bordeaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Concarneau and Bordeaux?
Record (1 meetings): Concarneau 0W | Draws 0 | Bordeaux 1W.
What form are Concarneau and Bordeaux in?
Concarneau (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Bordeaux (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Concarneau's attack rating (0.82) and Bordeaux's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bordeaux's attack (0.91x) against Concarneau's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 36/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bordeaux Win
31%
3.20
27%
3.69
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Concarneau xG
Total xG
2.59
1.41
Bordeaux xG
3.20
31%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
8%
13.04
13%
7.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.5 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.5 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.4 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Concarneau vs Bordeaux?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Concarneau and Bordeaux expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Concarneau and 1.41 for Bordeaux, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Concarneau vs Bordeaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 36 outings, Concarneau have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 9W 8D 19L record — D-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Bordeaux's form line: 13W 9D 14L from 36 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.97 PPG for Concarneau against 1.33 for Bordeaux. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Concarneau have posted 0.94 PPG from 18 outings (4W 5D 9L).
On the road, Bordeaux have gone 4W 4D 10L from 18 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bordeaux's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Concarneau are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Bordeaux are on 1.25 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: Bordeaux in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Concarneau
Current Season
Bordeaux
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Concarneau and Bordeaux in coming into this match?
Concarneau have gone 9W 8D 19L in their last 36 games (0.97 PPG), while Bordeaux have gone 13W 9D 14L in their last 36 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Concarneau at home or Bordeaux away?
Concarneau's home record (0.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Concarneau at home: 0.94 PPG; Bordeaux away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Concarneau or Bordeaux been keeping clean sheets recently?
Concarneau have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Bordeaux in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Concarneau
0
Draws
1
Bordeaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Concarneau and Bordeaux?
From 2 meetings on record, Concarneau have won 1, Bordeaux have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Concarneau and Bordeaux last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2024, when Concarneau 4-2 Bordeaux.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Concarneau see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Concarneau 56%, Bordeaux 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Concarneau) and 56% (Bordeaux). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Concarneau have failed to score in 33% of games; Bordeaux in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Concarneau home games / Bordeaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Concarneau play Bordeaux?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Concarneau's games and 56% of Bordeaux's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Concarneau vs Bordeaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Concarneau's matches and 56% of Bordeaux's.
Do Concarneau and Bordeaux tend to score early?
Concarneau have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Bordeaux in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Concarneau cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Bordeaux.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Concarneau beat Bordeaux 4-2 at Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat, Regular Season - 37, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Concarneau 1.19 xG and Bordeaux 1.41 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Concarneau beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Concarneau attack 0.82 / defence 1.35 against Bordeaux attack 0.91 / defence 1.18, drawn from 36/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Concarneau 31% | Draw 27% | Bordeaux 42%, with Bordeaux to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Concarneau win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Concarneau 44%, Bordeaux 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Concarneau's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Bordeaux's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Concarneau 0.97 PPG, Bordeaux 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Concarneau win broke the near-deadlock. Concarneau (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm. Bordeaux (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.