Clermont Foot 1-2 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Clermont Foot at 40%, yet in-form Rodez provide a compelling counter-argument — this Clermont Foot vs Rodez fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rodez make the trip to Stade Gabriel Montpied to face Clermont Foot in Ligue 2 (matchday 23). The match kicks off on Friday 13 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Current Form
Clermont Foot's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Clermont Foot have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Clermont Foot are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Rodez have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Rodez's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Rodez arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Clermont Foot's last 10 home games and Rodez's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Clermont Foot's games and 80% of Rodez's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Clermont Foot, 0 for Rodez and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 19 Sep 2025, ended Clermont Foot 1–0 Rodez — a Clermont Foot win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Clermont Foot — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 64%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Rodez — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Clermont Foot 55% and Rodez 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 39% | Rodez 57%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Clermont Foot surrender their half-time lead 64% of the time, while Rodez have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.47 xG and Rodez 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 1.033 / defence 0.977 | Rodez attack 1.175 / defence 1.236. League average goals — home 1.153 / away 1.171. Rodez's defence rating of 1.236 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Clermont Foot's projected output up. Data: built from Clermont Foot's last 56 games and Rodez's last 56.
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 40% | Draw 25% | Rodez 35%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 2.48 | Draw 3.98 | Rodez 2.89. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Clermont Foot as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rodez (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Clermont Foot 70% (last 10 home games) | Rodez 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 23 | Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied • Kick-off: Friday 13 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 40% | Draw 25% | Rodez 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Clermont Foot 1.47 / Rodez 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 1.033 / def 0.977 | Rodez attack 1.175 / def 1.236 | league avg home 1.153 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Clermont Foot (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Rodez xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Clermont Foot vs Rodez FAQs
What time does Clermont Foot vs Rodez kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Rodez kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 13 February 2026 at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Rodez?
Clermont Foot 1 - 2 Rodez.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Rodez part of?
Clermont Foot vs Rodez is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 23) (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 40% chance of winning, Rodez a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Clermont Foot the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Clermont Foot and Rodez will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Clermont Foot vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Clermont Foot's attack rating (1.03) and Rodez's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rodez's attack (1.18x) against Clermont Foot's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from Clermont Foot's last 56 games and Rodez's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Clermont Foot Win
40%
2.48
25%
3.98
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.82
1.34
Rodez xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
11%
9.52
8%
12.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.8 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Clermont Foot vs Rodez Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.34 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 56 outings, Clermont Foot have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 12W 18D 26L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Rodez's form line: 16W 21D 19L from 56 games, 1.23 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.96 PPG for Clermont Foot against 1.23 for Rodez. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Clermont Foot have posted 1.07 PPG from their last 27 home games (6W 11D 10L).
On the road, Rodez have gone 7W 10D 10L from their last 27 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Clermont Foot are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.50 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez in 71%.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Blended
Rodez
Blended
Clermont Foot (Home) vs Rodez (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Clermont Foot
Blended
Rodez
Blended
❓ Clermont Foot vs Rodez Form FAQs
What form are Clermont Foot and Rodez in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 12W 18D 26L in their last 56 games (0.96 PPG), while Rodez have gone 16W 21D 19L in their last 56 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Rodez away?
Rodez's away record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.07 PPG; Rodez away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 5 H2H matches between Clermont Foot and Rodez, the earliest from December 2024. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Clermont Foot have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Rodez — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Clermont Foot
2
Draws
1
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Clermont Foot vs Rodez H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Rodez?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Clermont Foot have won 2, Rodez have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Rodez last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: Clermont Foot 1-0 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Rodez?
Clermont Foot have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Clermont Foot see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 54% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 63% for Clermont Foot, 70% for Rodez — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Clermont Foot) and 67% (Rodez).
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Clermont Foot vs Rodez Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Clermont Foot and Rodez matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Clermont Foot's games and 70% of Rodez's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Clermont Foot and Rodez matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 67% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Rodez matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Clermont Foot's recent matches and 78% of Rodez's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rodez defy the odds to beat Clermont Foot 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez beat Clermont Foot 1-2 at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.47 xG and Rodez 1.34 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 1.03 / defence 0.98 against Rodez attack 1.18 / defence 1.24, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 40% | Draw 25% | Rodez 35%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Rodez win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 39%, Rodez 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Rodez's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Clermont Foot 0.96 PPG, Rodez 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rodez win broke the near-deadlock. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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