Clermont Foot 1-1 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rodez at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Clermont Foot face Rodez.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rodez make the trip to Stade Gabriel-Montpied to face Clermont Foot in Ligue 2 (matchday 16). The match kicks off on Friday 13 December 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Current Form
Clermont Foot's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
In front of their own supporters, Clermont Foot have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Rodez have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Rodez's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Clermont Foot — key trading statistics (last 49 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Rodez — key trading statistics (last 49 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 47% versus Rodez 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 45% | Rodez 63%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Clermont Foot surrender their half-time lead 46% of the time, while Rodez have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 47% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.41 xG and Rodez 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.860 / defence 1.152 | Rodez attack 1.448 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 0.998. Rodez's defence rating of 1.209 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Clermont Foot's projected output up. Rodez have an above-average attack rating of 1.448, which lifts their away xG to 1.67. Data: built from Clermont Foot's last 15 games and Rodez's last 53.
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 32% | Draw 24% | Rodez 44%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 3.08 | Draw 4.21 | Rodez 2.29. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.41 / 1.67) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rodez as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rodez if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.07 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Clermont Foot's last 10 home games and Rodez's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Clermont Foot 60% (last 10 home games) | Rodez 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 16 | Venue: Stade Gabriel-Montpied • Kick-off: Friday 13 December 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 32% | Draw 24% | Rodez 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Clermont Foot 1.41 / Rodez 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.860 / def 1.152 | Rodez attack 1.448 / def 1.209 | league avg home 1.352 / away 0.998 • Poisson stance: Rodez (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Rodez xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Clermont Foot vs Rodez FAQs
What time does Clermont Foot vs Rodez kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Rodez kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 13 December 2024 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Rodez?
Clermont Foot 1 - 1 Rodez.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Rodez part of?
Clermont Foot vs Rodez is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 16) (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 32% chance of winning, Rodez a 44% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Clermont Foot and Rodez will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Clermont Foot vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Clermont Foot's attack rating (0.86) and Rodez's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rodez's attack (1.45x) against Clermont Foot's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from Clermont Foot's last 15 games and Rodez's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
32%
3.08
24%
4.21
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
3.07
1.67
Rodez xG
3.08
32%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
19%
5.29
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
6%
16.28
11%
9.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.7 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.9 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.6 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Clermont Foot vs Rodez Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.67 for Rodez, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 49 outings, Clermont Foot have picked up 0.84 PPG on a 9W 14D 26L record — W-W-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Rodez's form line: 19W 15D 15L from 49 games, 1.47 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Rodez are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Clermont Foot.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Clermont Foot have posted 0.92 PPG from their last 25 home games (5W 8D 12L).
On the road, Rodez have gone 8W 7D 10L from their last 25 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Clermont Foot are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.69 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez in 67%.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Blended
Rodez
Blended
Clermont Foot (Home) vs Rodez (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Clermont Foot
Blended
Rodez
Blended
❓ Clermont Foot vs Rodez Form FAQs
What form are Clermont Foot and Rodez in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 9W 14D 26L in their last 49 games (0.84 PPG), while Rodez have gone 19W 15D 15L in their last 49 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Rodez away?
Rodez's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 0.92 PPG; Rodez away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 5 H2H matches between Clermont Foot and Rodez, the earliest from December 2024. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Clermont Foot have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Rodez — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Clermont Foot
2
Draws
1
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Clermont Foot vs Rodez H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Rodez?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Clermont Foot have won 2, Rodez have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Rodez last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: Clermont Foot 1-0 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Rodez?
Clermont Foot have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 52%, Rodez 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Clermont Foot) and 60% (Rodez).
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Clermont Foot vs Rodez Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Clermont Foot and Rodez matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Clermont Foot's games and 64% of Rodez's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Clermont Foot and Rodez matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 60% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Rodez matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Clermont Foot's recent matches and 88% of Rodez's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Clermont Foot and Rodez share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot and Rodez finished level at 1-1 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.41 xG and Rodez 1.67 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Rodez attack 1.45 / defence 1.21, drawn from 15/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 32% | Draw 24% | Rodez 44%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 45%, Rodez 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Rodez's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rodez arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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