Clermont Foot 0-1 Reims – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Clermont Foot at 44%, yet in-form Reims provide a compelling counter-argument — this Clermont Foot vs Reims fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Reims make the trip to Stade Gabriel Montpied to face Clermont Foot in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Friday 30 January 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Clermont Foot's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Clermont Foot have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stade Gabriel Montpied — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Reims have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reims away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Reims are 0.80 PPG clear of Clermont Foot in recent Ligue 2 fixtures (2.00 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Clermont Foot register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Reims in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Clermont Foot 3W, Reims 3W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2025, ended 1–4 with Reims winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Clermont Foot half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Reims half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 55% versus Reims 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 39% | Reims 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.59 xG and Reims 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 1.131 / defence 0.997 | Reims attack 1.103 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.235 / away 1.188. Data: 54 Clermont Foot games / 20 Reims games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 44% | Draw 24% | Reims 31%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 2.27 | Draw 4.17 | Reims 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Clermont Foot are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Reims (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Clermont Foot 80% | Reims 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied • Kick-off: Friday 30 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 44% | Draw 24% | Reims 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Clermont Foot 1.59 / Reims 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 1.131 / def 0.997 | Reims attack 1.103 / def 1.140 | league avg home 1.235 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Clermont Foot (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Reims xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Reims kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Reims kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 30 January 2026 at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Reims?
Clermont Foot 0 - 1 Reims.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Reims part of?
Clermont Foot vs Reims is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 44% chance of winning, Reims a 31% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Clermont Foot the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Clermont Foot and Reims will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Reims?
Record (7 meetings): Clermont Foot 3W | Draws 1 | Reims 3W.
What form are Clermont Foot and Reims in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Reims (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Clermont Foot's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Reims's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. Flip it around — Reims's attack (1.10x) against Clermont Foot's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 54/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Clermont Foot Win
44%
2.27
24%
4.08
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.90
1.31
Reims xG
2.27
44%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
12%
8.38
6%
15.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.5 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.31 for Reims, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Reims?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 56 outings, Clermont Foot have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 13W 19D 24L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Reims's form line: 18W 15D 23L from 56 games, 1.23 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Clermont Foot against 1.23 for Reims. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Clermont Foot have posted 1.11 PPG from 27 outings (6W 12D 9L).
On the road, Reims have gone 7W 9D 11L from 27 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Clermont Foot are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.27 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Blended
Reims
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Reims in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 13W 19D 24L in their last 56 games (1.04 PPG), while Reims have gone 18W 15D 23L in their last 56 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Reims away?
Clermont Foot's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.11 PPG; Reims away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Clermont Foot won 4-1 on 28 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Clermont Foot have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Reims — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Clermont Foot
2
Draws
4
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Reims?
From 9 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 3, Reims have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Reims last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Clermont Foot 0-0 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Reims?
Reims have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 67%, Reims 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Clermont Foot) and 52% (Reims).
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot have failed to score in 33% of games; Reims in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Reims?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Clermont Foot's games and 52% of Reims's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Clermont Foot vs Reims usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 52% of Reims's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Reims tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Reims in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Reims defy the odds to beat Clermont Foot 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims beat Clermont Foot 0-1 at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.59 xG and Reims 1.31 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Clermont Foot fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 1.13 / defence 1.00 against Reims attack 1.10 / defence 1.14, drawn from 54/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 44% | Draw 24% | Reims 31%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Reims win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 39%, Reims 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Reims's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Clermont Foot 1.04 PPG, Reims 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reims win broke the near-deadlock. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward. Reims (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.