Clermont Foot 1-1 RED Star FC 93 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RED Star FC 93 at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Clermont Foot host RED Star FC 93 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 24 September 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Clermont Foot stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Clermont Foot have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Clermont Foot's home record at Stade Gabriel-Montpied: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
RED Star FC 93 — All Games: 2W 0D 3L from 5 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. RED Star FC 93 have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
RED Star FC 93's away record: 1W 0D 2L from 3 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. RED Star FC 93 are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Clermont Foot register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, RED Star FC 93 in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Clermont Foot in-play tendencies (5 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they fail to score in 60% of games.
RED Star FC 93 in-play tendencies (5 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; they fail to score in 40% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Clermont Foot 20% | RED Star FC 93 40%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 20% | RED Star FC 93 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.26 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.704 / defence 1.097 | RED Star FC 93 attack 1.073 / defence 1.442. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.204. Clermont Foot's attack strength of 0.704 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. RED Star FC 93 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.442 — this is suppressing Clermont Foot's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Clermont Foot games / 5 RED Star FC 93 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 33% | Draw 26% | RED Star FC 93 41%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | RED Star FC 93 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, RED Star FC 93 are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RED Star FC 93 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Clermont Foot 60% | RED Star FC 93 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93 | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stade Gabriel-Montpied • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 Sep 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 33% | Draw 26% | RED Star FC 93 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Clermont Foot 1.26 / RED Star FC 93 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.704 / def 1.097 | RED Star FC 93 attack 1.073 / def 1.442 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: RED Star FC 93 (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.42
RED Star FC 93 xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93 kick off?
Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93 kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 24 September 2024 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93?
Clermont Foot 1 - 1 RED Star FC 93.
Where is Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93 being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93 part of?
Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93 is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 33% chance of winning, RED Star FC 93 a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making RED Star FC 93 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Clermont Foot and RED Star FC 93 will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and RED Star FC 93?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Clermont Foot and RED Star FC 93 in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 2W-0D-3L in 5 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Clermont Foot's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against RED Star FC 93's defensive record (1.44x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, RED Star FC 93's attack versus Clermont Foot's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RED Star FC 93 Win
33%
2.99
26%
3.87
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.68
1.42
RED Star FC 93 xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
8%
12.33
12%
8.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.7 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.3 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.7 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and RED Star FC 93 expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.42 for RED Star FC 93, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 5 outings, Clermont Foot have picked up 0.80 PPG on a 1W 1D 3L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Clermont Foot, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
RED Star FC 93's form line: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Clermont Foot on 0.80 PPG, RED Star FC 93 on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Clermont Foot have posted 0.33 PPG from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L). That actually lags their 0.80 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, RED Star FC 93 have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RED Star FC 93 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Clermont Foot are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; RED Star FC 93 are on 1.20 scored and 2.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Clermont Foot have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games.
Last 5 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Early Season
RED Star FC 93
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and RED Star FC 93 in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 games (0.80 PPG), while RED Star FC 93 have gone 2W 0D 3L in their last 5 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or RED Star FC 93 away?
RED Star FC 93's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 0.33 PPG; RED Star FC 93 away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Clermont Foot and RED Star FC 93 runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Clermont Foot's record when hosting RED Star FC 93 specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Clermont Foot
3
Draws
1
RED Star FC 93
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and RED Star FC 93?
From 4 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 0, RED Star FC 93 have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and RED Star FC 93 last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Clermont Foot 0-1 RED Star FC 93.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and RED Star FC 93?
RED Star FC 93 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 33%, RED Star FC 93 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 33% for Clermont Foot and 100% for RED Star FC 93. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot have failed to score in 67% of games; RED Star FC 93 in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / RED Star FC 93 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play RED Star FC 93?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Clermont Foot's recent matches and 67% of RED Star FC 93's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Clermont Foot's matches and 100% of RED Star FC 93's.
Do Clermont Foot and RED Star FC 93 tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, RED Star FC 93 in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Clermont Foot and RED Star FC 93 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot and RED Star FC 93 finished level at 1-1 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied, Regular Season - 6, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.26 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.42 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.70 / defence 1.10 against RED Star FC 93 attack 1.07 / defence 1.44, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 33% | Draw 26% | RED Star FC 93 41%, with RED Star FC 93 to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 20%, RED Star FC 93 80%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (5 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did.
RED Star FC 93's trading profile (5 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Clermont Foot 0.80 PPG, RED Star FC 93 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.