Clermont Foot vs Guingamp – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Clermont Foot at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Clermont Foot vs Guingamp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Clermont Foot host Guingamp at Stade Gabriel Montpied in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 23 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Clermont Foot — All Games: 1W 7D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Clermont Foot have posted 1W 6D 3L at Stade Gabriel Montpied — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Clermont Foot at 1.00 PPG versus Guingamp's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Clermont Foot have won 3, Guingamp 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2026, ended 1–0 with Clermont Foot winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Clermont Foot in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 60% versus Guingamp 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 44% | Guingamp 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.12 xG and Guingamp 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.812 / defence 0.891 | Guingamp attack 0.795 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.317. Data: 43 Clermont Foot games / 43 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 39% | Draw 31% | Guingamp 29%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Guingamp 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Clermont Foot at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.06 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Clermont Foot 40% | Guingamp 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied • Kick-off: Friday 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 39% | Draw 31% | Guingamp 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Clermont Foot 1.12 / Guingamp 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.812 / def 0.891 | Guingamp attack 0.795 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Clermont Foot (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Guingamp xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Guingamp kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Guingamp is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 23 October 2026 at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Guingamp part of?
Clermont Foot vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 39% chance of winning, Guingamp a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Clermont Foot the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Clermont Foot and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Guingamp?
Record (4 meetings): Clermont Foot 3W | Draws 0 | Guingamp 1W.
What form are Clermont Foot and Guingamp in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-L-D. Guingamp (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Clermont Foot's attack at 0.81x the league average against Guingamp's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Clermont Foot's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Clermont Foot Win
39%
2.55
31%
3.19
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.06
0.93
Guingamp xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
15%
6.47
10%
10.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 11.9 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 0.93 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Clermont Foot have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 9W 17D 17L record — D-D-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guingamp's form line: 12W 12D 19L from 43 games, 1.12 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Clermont Foot on 1.02 PPG, Guingamp on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Clermont Foot have posted 1.14 PPG from 21 outings (5W 9D 7L).
On the road, Guingamp have gone 4W 6D 11L from 21 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Clermont Foot are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.23 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Clermont Foot have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 9W 17D 17L in their last 43 games (1.02 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 12W 12D 19L in their last 43 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Guingamp away?
Clermont Foot's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.14 PPG; Guingamp away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Clermont Foot go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2024, when Clermont Foot won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Clermont Foot's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Clermont Foot
0
Draws
1
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Guingamp?
From 4 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 3, Guingamp have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Clermont Foot 1-0 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Guingamp?
Clermont Foot have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Clermont Foot see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 62%, Guingamp 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Clermont Foot) and 62% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot have failed to score in 33% of games; Guingamp in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Guingamp?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Clermont Foot's games and 62% of Guingamp's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Clermont Foot vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 62% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Guingamp tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.