Clermont Foot 2-1 Dunkerque – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Dunkerque (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Clermont Foot face Dunkerque.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 25 as Clermont Foot welcome Dunkerque to Stade Gabriel Montpied. Kick-off is set for Friday 27 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Clermont Foot have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Clermont Foot's home record at Stade Gabriel Montpied: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dunkerque stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dunkerque's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Dunkerque's 1.80 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Clermont Foot's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Clermont Foot register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Dunkerque in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Clermont Foot have won 0, Dunkerque 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Clermont Foot in-play and half-time data (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Dunkerque in-play and half-time data (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 55% versus Dunkerque 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 40% | Dunkerque 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.08 xG and Dunkerque 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 1.002 / defence 1.038 | Dunkerque attack 1.265 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.156 / away 1.197. Dunkerque have an above-average attack strength of 1.265 — the away xG of 1.57 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 58 Clermont Foot games / 58 Dunkerque games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 26% | Draw 25% | Dunkerque 49%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 3.85 | Draw 4.00 | Dunkerque 2.04. Dunkerque hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dunkerque are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dunkerque offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Clermont Foot 80% | Dunkerque 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Dunkerque | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied • Kick-off: Friday 27 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 26% | Draw 25% | Dunkerque 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Clermont Foot 1.08 / Dunkerque 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 1.002 / def 1.038 | Dunkerque attack 1.265 / def 0.935 | league avg home 1.156 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Dunkerque (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Dunkerque xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Dunkerque kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Dunkerque kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 27 February 2026 at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Dunkerque?
Clermont Foot 2 - 1 Dunkerque.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Dunkerque being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Dunkerque part of?
Clermont Foot vs Dunkerque is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Dunkerque?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 26% chance of winning, Dunkerque a 49% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Dunkerque the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Dunkerque?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Clermont Foot and Dunkerque will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Dunkerque have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Dunkerque?
Record (3 meetings): Clermont Foot 0W | Draws 1 | Dunkerque 2W.
What form are Clermont Foot and Dunkerque in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Dunkerque (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Clermont Foot's attack at 1.00x the league average against Dunkerque's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dunkerque's attack versus Clermont Foot's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.5%), 1-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dunkerque Win
26%
3.82
25%
3.97
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.66
1.57
Dunkerque xG
3.82
26%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
21%
4.82
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
5%
18.42
16%
6.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 11.0 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.5 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.57 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Dunkerque?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Clermont Foot's recent record stands at 14W 19D 27L from 60 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dunkerque, meanwhile, have gone 28W 13D 19L across 60 games — 1.62 PPG, with L-L-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Dunkerque is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dunkerque by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Clermont Foot heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Clermont Foot have managed 6W 12D 11L from 29 games — 1.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dunkerque's away record stands at 10W 7D 12L across 29 trips, a 1.28 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Clermont Foot are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Dunkerque are on 1.47 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Blended
Dunkerque
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Dunkerque in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 14W 19D 27L in their last 60 games (1.02 PPG), while Dunkerque have gone 28W 13D 19L in their last 60 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Dunkerque away?
Dunkerque's away record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.03 PPG; Dunkerque away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Clermont Foot or Dunkerque been keeping clean sheets recently?
Clermont Foot have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Dunkerque in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Clermont Foot and Dunkerque runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Feb 2025, when Dunkerque won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Clermont Foot's record when hosting Dunkerque specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Clermont Foot
1
Draws
2
Dunkerque
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Dunkerque?
From 4 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 1, Dunkerque have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Dunkerque last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Clermont Foot 2-1 Dunkerque.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Dunkerque?
Dunkerque have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 66%, Dunkerque 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Clermont Foot) and 41% (Dunkerque).
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot have failed to score in 34% of games; Dunkerque in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Dunkerque away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Dunkerque?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Clermont Foot's games and 55% of Dunkerque's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Clermont Foot vs Dunkerque usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 41% of Dunkerque's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Dunkerque tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Dunkerque in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Clermont Foot defy the odds to beat Dunkerque 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot beat Dunkerque 2-1 at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.08 xG and Dunkerque 1.57 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Clermont Foot beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 1.00 / defence 1.04 against Dunkerque attack 1.26 / defence 0.94, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 26% | Draw 25% | Dunkerque 49%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Clermont Foot win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 40%, Dunkerque 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Dunkerque's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dunkerque arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with Clermont Foot winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.