Clermont Foot 1-1 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bastia at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Clermont Foot vs Bastia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Clermont Foot and Bastia meet at Stade Gabriel-Montpied in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Friday 14 February 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Clermont Foot's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Gabriel-Montpied, Clermont Foot have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bastia have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bastia have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Clermont Foot lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Clermont Foot — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Bastia — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 48% versus Bastia 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 43% | Bastia 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 0.94 xG and Bastia 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.783 / defence 1.092 | Bastia attack 0.929 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.041. Clermont Foot's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 22 Clermont Foot games / 60 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 32% | Draw 31% | Bastia 38%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | Bastia 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bastia as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bastia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Clermont Foot 60% | Bastia 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade Gabriel-Montpied • Kick-off: Friday 14 Feb 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 32% | Draw 31% | Bastia 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Clermont Foot 0.94 / Bastia 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.783 / def 1.092 | Bastia attack 0.929 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.041 • Poisson stance: Bastia (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Bastia xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Bastia kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Bastia kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 14 February 2025 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Bastia?
Clermont Foot 1 - 1 Bastia.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Bastia part of?
Clermont Foot vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 32% chance of winning, Bastia a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Clermont Foot and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Bastia?
Record (1 meetings): Clermont Foot 0W | Draws 1 | Bastia 0W.
What form are Clermont Foot and Bastia in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Bastia (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Clermont Foot's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Bastia's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. Flip it around — Bastia's attack (0.93x) against Clermont Foot's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 22/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
32%
3.16
31%
3.25
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.00
1.06
Bastia xG
3.16
32%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
11%
9.08
15%
6.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 14.3 | 7.5 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.06 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 56 outings, Clermont Foot have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 11W 16D 29L record — W-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bastia's form line: 18W 20D 18L from 56 games, 1.32 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-W. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bastia are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Clermont Foot.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Clermont Foot have posted 0.89 PPG from 28 outings (5W 10D 13L).
On the road, Bastia have gone 8W 8D 12L from 28 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Clermont Foot are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.12 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Blended
Bastia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Bastia in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 11W 16D 29L in their last 56 games (0.88 PPG), while Bastia have gone 18W 20D 18L in their last 56 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Bastia away?
Bastia's away record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 0.89 PPG; Bastia away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Clermont Foot or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Clermont Foot have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Bastia in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Clermont Foot have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Bastia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Clermont Foot
3
Draws
1
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Bastia?
From 4 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 0, Bastia have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Clermont Foot 1-1 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Bastia?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 54%, Bastia 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Clermont Foot) and 36% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot have failed to score in 43% of games; Bastia in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Bastia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Clermont Foot's recent matches and 46% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Clermont Foot vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 36% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Bastia tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Bastia in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Clermont Foot and Bastia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Gabriel-Montpied, Regular Season - 23, as Clermont Foot and Bastia drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 0.94 xG and Bastia 1.06 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.78 / defence 1.09 against Bastia attack 0.93 / defence 0.95, drawn from 22/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 32% | Draw 31% | Bastia 38%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 43%, Bastia 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Bastia's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bastia arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.