Clermont Foot vs Annecy – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Clermont Foot take on Annecy.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 33 as Clermont Foot welcome Annecy to Stade Gabriel Montpied. Kick-off is set for Friday 14 May 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Clermont Foot have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Clermont Foot have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Clermont Foot's home record at Stade Gabriel Montpied: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Annecy stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Annecy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Annecy have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Annecy's 2.00 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Clermont Foot's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Clermont Foot, 3 for Annecy and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2026, ended 1–2 with Annecy winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Clermont Foot in-play tendencies (39 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Annecy in-play tendencies (39 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 59% versus Annecy 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 44% | Annecy 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.00 xG and Annecy 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.768 / defence 0.765 | Annecy attack 0.991 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.253. Clermont Foot's attack strength of 0.768 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Clermont Foot's defence rating of 0.765 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Clermont Foot games / 38 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 34% | Draw 35% | Annecy 31%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 2.94 | Draw 2.86 | Annecy 3.23. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.95 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Clermont Foot 50% | Annecy 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied • Kick-off: Friday 14 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 34% | Draw 35% | Annecy 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 41% | xG Clermont Foot 1.00 / Annecy 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.768 / def 0.765 | Annecy attack 0.991 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Annecy xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Annecy kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Annecy is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 14 May 2027 at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Annecy part of?
Clermont Foot vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 34% chance of winning, Annecy a 31% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Clermont Foot and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Annecy?
Record (4 meetings): Clermont Foot 1W | Draws 0 | Annecy 3W.
What form are Clermont Foot and Annecy in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-D-D. Annecy (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Clermont Foot's attack rating (0.77) and Annecy's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Annecy's attack versus Clermont Foot's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.95
35%
2.86
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
1.95
0.95
Annecy xG
2.95
34%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
13%
7.62
11%
8.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 0.95 for Annecy, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Clermont Foot's recent record stands at 9W 14D 16L from 39 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Clermont Foot, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Annecy, meanwhile, have gone 18W 8D 13L across 39 games — 1.59 PPG, with W-W-L-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Annecy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Annecy by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Clermont Foot heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Clermont Foot have managed 5W 9D 6L from 20 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Annecy's away record stands at 10W 1D 9L across 20 trips, a 1.55 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Clermont Foot are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.44 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Early Season
Annecy
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Annecy in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 9W 14D 16L in their last 39 games (1.05 PPG), while Annecy have gone 18W 8D 13L in their last 39 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Annecy away?
Annecy's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.20 PPG; Annecy away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Clermont Foot or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Clermont Foot have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Annecy in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Clermont Foot and Annecy runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Annecy have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Clermont Foot's record when hosting Annecy specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Clermont Foot
0
Draws
3
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Annecy?
From 4 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 1, Annecy have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Annecy 2-1 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Annecy?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Clermont Foot see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 60%, Annecy 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Clermont Foot) and 60% (Annecy).
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Clermont Foot's recent matches and 45% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Clermont Foot vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 60% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Annecy tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Annecy in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.