Clermont Foot 2-1 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amiens at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Clermont Foot vs Amiens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Gabriel Montpied plays host to Clermont Foot versus Amiens in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Friday 7 November 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Clermont Foot (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Clermont Foot's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Stade Gabriel Montpied this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Amiens have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amiens's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Clermont Foot against 1.10 for Amiens. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Clermont Foot have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Amiens in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Clermont Foot lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Mar 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Clermont Foot — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Amiens — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 53% versus Amiens 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 36% | Amiens 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.25 xG and Amiens 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.795 / defence 0.969 | Amiens attack 1.175 / defence 1.200. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 1.189. Clermont Foot's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 Clermont Foot games / 47 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 35% | Draw 26% | Amiens 39%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Amiens 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Amiens are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Amiens if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Clermont Foot 70% | Amiens 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied • Kick-off: Friday 7 Nov 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 35% | Draw 26% | Amiens 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Clermont Foot 1.25 / Amiens 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.795 / def 0.969 | Amiens attack 1.175 / def 1.200 | league avg home 1.314 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Amiens (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Amiens xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Amiens kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Amiens kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 7 November 2025 at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Amiens?
Clermont Foot 2 - 1 Amiens.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Amiens part of?
Clermont Foot vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 35% chance of winning, Amiens a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Clermont Foot and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Amiens?
Record (2 meetings): Clermont Foot 0W | Draws 1 | Amiens 1W.
What form are Clermont Foot and Amiens in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Amiens (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Clermont Foot's attack rating (0.80) and Amiens's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Amiens's attack (1.18x) against Clermont Foot's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
35%
2.90
26%
3.80
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.61
1.35
Amiens xG
2.90
35%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
9%
11.22
11%
8.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.0 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.5 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.35 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Clermont Foot come into this having played 47 games, going 10W 16D 21L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-L. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Amiens sit at 1.23 PPG from 47 outings (17W 7D 23L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.98 PPG for Clermont Foot against 1.23 for Amiens. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Clermont Foot's home form reads 4W 10D 9L across 23 games on their own ground, a 0.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Amiens have taken 0.78 points per game from 23 outings (5W 3D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Amiens's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Clermont Foot are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.17 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Blended
Amiens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Amiens in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 10W 16D 21L in their last 47 games (0.98 PPG), while Amiens have gone 17W 7D 23L in their last 47 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Amiens away?
Clermont Foot's home record (0.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 0.96 PPG; Amiens away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 9 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Clermont Foot have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Amiens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Clermont Foot
1
Draws
2
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Amiens?
From 4 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 1, Amiens have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2026, when Amiens 4-3 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Amiens?
Amiens have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 61%, Amiens 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (Clermont Foot) and 52% (Amiens).
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot have failed to score in 39% of games; Amiens in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Amiens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Clermont Foot's recent matches and 48% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Clermont Foot vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 52% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Amiens tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Amiens in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Clermont Foot defy the odds to beat Amiens 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot beat Amiens 2-1 at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.25 xG and Amiens 1.35 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.80 / defence 0.97 against Amiens attack 1.18 / defence 1.20, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 35% | Draw 26% | Amiens 39%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Clermont Foot win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 36%, Amiens 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Amiens's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Clermont Foot 0.98 PPG, Amiens 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Clermont Foot win broke the near-deadlock. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.