Bordeaux 0-0 Quevilly – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bordeaux at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bordeaux vs Quevilly encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bordeaux host Quevilly at Stade Matmut-Atlantique in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 March 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bordeaux stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Bordeaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Bordeaux have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Quevilly — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Quevilly away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Bordeaux have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Bordeaux have won 1, Quevilly 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2023, ended 2–3 with Quevilly winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Bordeaux trading profile (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Quevilly trading profile (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bordeaux 42% versus Quevilly 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bordeaux 42% | Quevilly 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bordeaux 1.36 xG and Quevilly 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bordeaux attack 1.038 / defence 0.783 | Quevilly attack 1.243 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.076. Quevilly have an above-average attack strength of 1.243 — the away xG of 1.05 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Bordeaux's defence rating of 0.783 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 64 Bordeaux games / 65 Quevilly games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bordeaux 43% | Draw 28% | Quevilly 28%. Fair-value odds: Bordeaux 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Quevilly 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bordeaux as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bordeaux offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Bordeaux 40% | Quevilly 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bordeaux vs Quevilly | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stade Matmut-Atlantique • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Mar 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bordeaux 43% | Draw 28% | Quevilly 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Bordeaux 1.36 / Quevilly 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Bordeaux attack 1.038 / def 0.783 | Quevilly attack 1.243 / def 1.122 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Bordeaux (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Bordeaux xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Quevilly xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bordeaux vs Quevilly kick off?
Bordeaux vs Quevilly kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What was the final score in Bordeaux vs Quevilly?
Bordeaux 0 - 0 Quevilly.
Where is Bordeaux vs Quevilly being played?
The match is being played at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What competition is Bordeaux vs Quevilly part of?
Bordeaux vs Quevilly is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bordeaux vs Quevilly?
Our statistical model gives Bordeaux a 43% chance of winning, Quevilly a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bordeaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bordeaux vs Quevilly?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Bordeaux and Quevilly will score (BTTS).
Will Bordeaux vs Quevilly have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Quevilly?
Record (3 meetings): Bordeaux 1W | Draws 1 | Quevilly 1W.
What form are Bordeaux and Quevilly in?
Bordeaux (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Quevilly (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bordeaux's attack rating (1.04) and Quevilly's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Quevilly's attack versus Bordeaux's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bordeaux Win
43%
2.31
28%
3.51
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Bordeaux xG
Total xG
2.41
1.05
Quevilly xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
15%
6.59
7%
13.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.8 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bordeaux vs Quevilly?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Bordeaux and Quevilly expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Bordeaux and 1.05 for Quevilly, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Bordeaux vs Quevilly?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bordeaux come into this having played 64 games, going 30W 16D 18L for 1.66 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-D. The sample for Bordeaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Quevilly sit at 1.17 PPG from 64 outings (17W 24D 23L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Quevilly is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bordeaux carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of Quevilly — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bordeaux's home form reads 19W 7D 5L across 31 games on their own ground, a 2.06 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.66 PPG overall — Bordeaux are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Quevilly have taken 1.19 points per game from 31 outings (9W 10D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bordeaux come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bordeaux are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Quevilly are on 1.27 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Defensively: Bordeaux have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bordeaux
Blended
Quevilly
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bordeaux and Quevilly in coming into this match?
Bordeaux have gone 30W 16D 18L in their last 64 games (1.66 PPG), while Quevilly have gone 17W 24D 23L in their last 64 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bordeaux at home or Quevilly away?
Bordeaux's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bordeaux at home: 2.06 PPG; Quevilly away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Bordeaux or Quevilly been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bordeaux have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Quevilly in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bordeaux and Quevilly runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Aug 2022, when Bordeaux won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bordeaux's record when hosting Quevilly specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Bordeaux
2
Draws
1
Quevilly
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Quevilly?
From 4 meetings on record, Bordeaux have won 1, Quevilly have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bordeaux and Quevilly last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2024, when Bordeaux 0-0 Quevilly.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bordeaux 39%, Quevilly 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Bordeaux) and 45% (Quevilly).
On the defensive side: Bordeaux keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Quevilly in 36%; Quevilly in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bordeaux home games / Quevilly away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bordeaux play Quevilly?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Bordeaux's recent matches and 42% of Quevilly's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bordeaux vs Quevilly usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Bordeaux's recent games and 45% of Quevilly's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bordeaux and Quevilly tend to score early?
Bordeaux have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Quevilly in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bordeaux's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bordeaux and Quevilly finished level at 0-0 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bordeaux 1.36 xG and Quevilly 1.05 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bordeaux fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Quevilly landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bordeaux attack 1.04 / defence 0.78 against Quevilly attack 1.24 / defence 1.12, drawn from 64/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bordeaux 43% | Draw 28% | Quevilly 28%, with Bordeaux to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bordeaux 42%, Quevilly 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bordeaux's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Quevilly's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bordeaux arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bordeaux (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward. Quevilly (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.