Bordeaux 2-4 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bordeaux at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bordeaux vs Auxerre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Auxerre make the trip to Stade Matmut-Atlantique to face Bordeaux in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 September 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bordeaux have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Bordeaux have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bordeaux's home record at Stade Matmut-Atlantique: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Matmut-Atlantique. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Bordeaux are significantly better at Stade Matmut-Atlantique than their overall form suggests.
Auxerre's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Auxerre have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Auxerre away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Bordeaux. A 1.30 PPG lead over Auxerre (2.00 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Bordeaux goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
Auxerre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bordeaux 34% versus Auxerre 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bordeaux 39% | Auxerre 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bordeaux 1.69 xG and Auxerre 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bordeaux attack 1.110 / defence 0.731 | Auxerre attack 1.338 / defence 1.231. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 0.925. Auxerre bring a strong defensive rating of 1.231 — this is suppressing Bordeaux's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Auxerre have an above-average attack strength of 1.338 — the away xG of 0.91 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Bordeaux's defence rating of 0.731 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 Bordeaux games / 4 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bordeaux 56% | Draw 24% | Auxerre 20%. Fair-value odds: Bordeaux 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Auxerre 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Bordeaux (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bordeaux are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bordeaux 30% | Auxerre 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bordeaux vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stade Matmut-Atlantique • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Sep 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bordeaux 56% | Draw 24% | Auxerre 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 49% | xG Bordeaux 1.69 / Auxerre 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Bordeaux attack 1.110 / def 0.731 | Auxerre attack 1.338 / def 1.231 | league avg home 1.234 / away 0.925 • Poisson stance: Bordeaux (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Bordeaux xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Auxerre xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bordeaux vs Auxerre kick off?
Bordeaux vs Auxerre kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 2 September 2023 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What was the final score in Bordeaux vs Auxerre?
Bordeaux 2 - 4 Auxerre.
Where is Bordeaux vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What competition is Bordeaux vs Auxerre part of?
Bordeaux vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bordeaux vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Bordeaux a 56% chance of winning, Auxerre a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bordeaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bordeaux vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Bordeaux and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Bordeaux vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Auxerre?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bordeaux and Auxerre in?
Bordeaux (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Auxerre (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bordeaux's attack at 1.11x the league average against Auxerre's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Auxerre's attack (1.34x) against Bordeaux's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 41/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bordeaux Win
56%
1.79
24%
4.15
20%
4.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Bordeaux xG
Total xG
2.59
0.91
Auxerre xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
4.98
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
19%
5.40
Win to Nil
23%
4.43
4%
26.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 11.4 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bordeaux vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Bordeaux and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Bordeaux and 0.91 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Bordeaux vs Auxerre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 41 outings, Bordeaux have picked up 1.85 PPG on a 22W 10D 9L record — L-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Bordeaux, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Auxerre's form line: 9W 13D 19L from 41 games, 0.98 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Auxerre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Bordeaux are the form team by 0.87 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Auxerre.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bordeaux have posted 2.30 PPG from 20 outings (14W 4D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.85 PPG overall — Bordeaux are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Auxerre have gone 4W 5D 11L from 20 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bordeaux come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bordeaux are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 0.73 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 0.98 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Defensively: Bordeaux have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bordeaux
Early Season
Auxerre
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bordeaux and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Bordeaux have gone 22W 10D 9L in their last 41 games (1.85 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 9W 13D 19L in their last 41 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bordeaux at home or Auxerre away?
Bordeaux's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bordeaux at home: 2.30 PPG; Auxerre away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Bordeaux or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bordeaux have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Auxerre in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Bordeaux
0
Draws
2
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Auxerre?
From 2 meetings on record, Bordeaux have won 0, Auxerre have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bordeaux and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 15 January 2024, when Auxerre 3-1 Bordeaux.
Who has won more matches between Bordeaux and Auxerre?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bordeaux 35%, Auxerre 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Bordeaux) and 55% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Bordeaux keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Auxerre in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bordeaux home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bordeaux play Auxerre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Bordeaux's recent matches and 60% of Auxerre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bordeaux vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Bordeaux's recent games and 55% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bordeaux and Auxerre tend to score early?
Bordeaux have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Auxerre cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Bordeaux.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Bordeaux 2-4 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Regular Season - 5, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bordeaux 1.69 xG and Auxerre 0.91 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Auxerre outscored their 0.91 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bordeaux attack 1.11 / defence 0.73 against Auxerre attack 1.34 / defence 1.23, drawn from 41/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bordeaux 56% | Draw 24% | Auxerre 20%, with Bordeaux to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Auxerre win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bordeaux 39%, Auxerre 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bordeaux's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Auxerre's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bordeaux arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 0.98. Form was overturned, with Auxerre winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bordeaux (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.