Bordeaux 3-1 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bordeaux at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bordeaux face Annecy.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Matmut-Atlantique plays host to Bordeaux versus Annecy in Ligue 2 (matchday 14). Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Current Form
Bordeaux's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Bordeaux's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Bordeaux are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Annecy (all games): 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Annecy have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 26 May 2023, ended Bordeaux 0–1 Annecy — a Annecy win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Bordeaux goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Annecy goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bordeaux 38% versus Annecy 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bordeaux 40% | Annecy 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bordeaux 1.41 xG and Annecy 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bordeaux attack 1.014 / defence 1.045 | Annecy attack 1.007 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 1.121. Data: built from Bordeaux's last 50 games and Annecy's last 51.
Result probabilities: Bordeaux 42% | Draw 27% | Annecy 31%. Fair-value odds: Bordeaux 2.39 | Draw 3.72 | Annecy 3.20. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bordeaux as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bordeaux if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Bordeaux 30% (last 10 home games) | Annecy 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bordeaux vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 14 | Venue: Stade Matmut-Atlantique • Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bordeaux 42% | Draw 27% | Annecy 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Bordeaux 1.41 / Annecy 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Bordeaux attack 1.014 / def 1.045 | Annecy attack 1.007 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.280 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Bordeaux (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Bordeaux xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Annecy xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bordeaux vs Annecy FAQs
What time does Bordeaux vs Annecy kick off?
Bordeaux vs Annecy kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What was the final score in Bordeaux vs Annecy?
Bordeaux 3 - 1 Annecy.
Where is Bordeaux vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What competition is Bordeaux vs Annecy part of?
Bordeaux vs Annecy is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 14) (France).
Who is favourite to win Bordeaux vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Bordeaux a 42% chance of winning, Annecy a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bordeaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bordeaux vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Bordeaux and Annecy will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bordeaux vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bordeaux's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Annecy's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. Flip it around — Annecy's attack (1.01x) against Bordeaux's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from Bordeaux's last 50 games and Annecy's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bordeaux Win
42%
2.39
27%
3.72
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Bordeaux xG
Total xG
2.59
1.18
Annecy xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
24%
4.08
Win to Nil
13%
7.76
8%
13.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.5 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bordeaux vs Annecy Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bordeaux vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Bordeaux and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Bordeaux and 1.18 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Bordeaux vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bordeaux come into this having played 50 games, going 23W 13D 14L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Annecy sit at 1.20 PPG from 50 outings (14W 18D 18L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-L across their last five.
Bordeaux carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Annecy — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Bordeaux's home form reads 14W 6D 4L across their last 24 home games, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Annecy have taken 0.92 points per game from their last 24 away games (4W 10D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bordeaux come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bordeaux are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.08 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Bordeaux have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bordeaux
Blended
Annecy
Blended
Bordeaux (Home) vs Annecy (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bordeaux
Blended
Annecy
Blended
❓ Bordeaux vs Annecy Form FAQs
What form are Bordeaux and Annecy in coming into this match?
Bordeaux have gone 23W 13D 14L in their last 50 games (1.64 PPG), while Annecy have gone 14W 18D 18L in their last 50 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bordeaux at home or Annecy away?
Bordeaux's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bordeaux at home: 2.00 PPG; Annecy away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Bordeaux or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bordeaux have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Annecy in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 16 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bordeaux have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Annecy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Bordeaux
0
Draws
2
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Bordeaux vs Annecy H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Annecy?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Bordeaux have won 2, Annecy have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bordeaux and Annecy last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 March 2024: Annecy 3-1 Bordeaux.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 62% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bordeaux 42%, Annecy 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Bordeaux) and 62% (Annecy).
On the defensive side: Bordeaux keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Annecy in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bordeaux home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bordeaux vs Annecy Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bordeaux and Annecy matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Bordeaux's recent matches and 50% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bordeaux and Annecy matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Bordeaux's recent games and 62% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bordeaux and Annecy matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Bordeaux's recent matches and 75% of Annecy's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bordeaux cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Annecy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bordeaux beat Annecy 3-1 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bordeaux 1.41 xG and Annecy 1.18 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Bordeaux beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bordeaux attack 1.01 / defence 1.04 against Annecy attack 1.01 / defence 1.08, drawn from 50/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bordeaux 42% | Draw 27% | Annecy 31%, with Bordeaux to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bordeaux 40%, Annecy 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bordeaux's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Annecy's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bordeaux arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points. Bordeaux (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Annecy (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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