Bastia 0-0 Quevilly – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bastia at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bastia vs Quevilly fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Quevilly make the trip to Stade Armand-Césari to face Bastia in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 16 December 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bastia's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bastia's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stade Armand-Césari this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Bastia are significantly better at Stade Armand-Césari than their overall form suggests.
Quevilly have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Quevilly away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Bastia have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Quevilly in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bastia lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2023, ended 0–1 with Quevilly winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Bastia half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Quevilly half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 42% versus Quevilly 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bastia 40% | Quevilly 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 1.73 xG and Quevilly 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 1.037 / defence 1.013 | Quevilly attack 1.211 / defence 1.323. League average goals — home 1.257 / away 1.124. Quevilly bring a strong defensive rating of 1.323 — this is suppressing Bastia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Quevilly have an above-average attack strength of 1.211 — the away xG of 1.38 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 Bastia games / 55 Quevilly games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bastia 45% | Draw 24% | Quevilly 30%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 2.22 | Draw 4.17 | Quevilly 3.33. Bastia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bastia are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bastia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.10 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Bastia 60% | Quevilly 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Quevilly | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Dec 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 45% | Draw 24% | Quevilly 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Bastia 1.73 / Quevilly 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 1.037 / def 1.013 | Quevilly attack 1.211 / def 1.323 | league avg home 1.257 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Bastia (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Quevilly xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bastia vs Quevilly kick off?
Bastia vs Quevilly kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 16 December 2023 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Quevilly?
Bastia 0 - 0 Quevilly.
Where is Bastia vs Quevilly being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs Quevilly part of?
Bastia vs Quevilly is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Quevilly?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 45% chance of winning, Quevilly a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Quevilly?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Bastia and Quevilly will score (BTTS).
Will Bastia vs Quevilly have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Quevilly?
Record (4 meetings): Bastia 2W | Draws 1 | Quevilly 1W.
What form are Bastia and Quevilly in?
Bastia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Quevilly (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Bastia's attack rating (1.04) and Quevilly's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Quevilly's attack (1.21x) against Bastia's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
45%
2.21
24%
4.11
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Bastia xG
Total xG
3.10
1.38
Quevilly xG
2.21
45%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
18%
5.62
Win to Nil
11%
8.76
5%
18.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.7 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Quevilly?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Bastia and Quevilly expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Bastia and 1.38 for Quevilly, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Quevilly?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bastia's recent record stands at 22W 14D 19L from 55 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Quevilly, meanwhile, have gone 15W 20D 20L across 55 games — 1.18 PPG, with W-D-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Quevilly is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Bastia against 1.18 for Quevilly. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Bastia have managed 15W 6D 6L from 27 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.45 PPG overall — Bastia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Quevilly's away record stands at 7W 8D 12L across 27 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bastia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bastia are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Quevilly are on 1.27 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Blended
Quevilly
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bastia and Quevilly in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 22W 14D 19L in their last 55 games (1.45 PPG), while Quevilly have gone 15W 20D 20L in their last 55 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Quevilly away?
Bastia's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.89 PPG; Quevilly away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Bastia or Quevilly been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Quevilly in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bastia won 3-0 on 8 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bastia have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Quevilly — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Bastia
2
Draws
1
Quevilly
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Quevilly?
From 6 meetings on record, Bastia have won 3, Quevilly have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Quevilly last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2024, when Quevilly 0-1 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and Quevilly?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bastia see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Quevilly see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 41%, Quevilly 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Bastia) and 44% (Quevilly).
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Quevilly in 33%; Bastia have failed to score in 26% of games; Quevilly in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Quevilly away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bastia play Quevilly?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Bastia's recent matches and 41% of Quevilly's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bastia vs Quevilly usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Bastia's recent games and 44% of Quevilly's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Bastia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia and Quevilly finished level at 0-0 at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 1.73 xG and Quevilly 1.38 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bastia fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Quevilly landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 1.04 / defence 1.01 against Quevilly attack 1.21 / defence 1.32, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 45% | Draw 24% | Quevilly 30%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 40%, Quevilly 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Quevilly's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 1.45 PPG, Quevilly 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bastia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Quevilly (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.