Bastia 1-1 Caen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as Bastia take on Caen.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bastia host Caen at Stade Armand-Césari in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bastia stand at 1W 3D 3L from 7 Ligue 2 matches — 0.86 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 0.71 goals per game and conceding 1.14 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Bastia have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade Armand-Césari, Bastia have gone 0W 3D 0L this season (3 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Caen have recorded 3W 1D 3L from 7 outings — 1.43 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.14 per game is modest, conceding 0.86 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets from 7 games (57%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Caen have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Caen's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 1L across 3 road games this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 3 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Caen — 0.57 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.43 vs 0.86). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Bastia trading profile (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Caen trading profile (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 57% versus Caen 29%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bastia 29% | Caen 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 0.77 xG and Caen 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 0.882 / defence 1.038 | Caen attack 0.684 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 0.801 / away 1.059. Data: 7 Bastia games / 7 Caen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bastia 31% | Draw 40% | Caen 30%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 3.23 | Draw 2.50 | Caen 3.33. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.52. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.52 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Caen's lower xG of 0.75 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 20% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 30% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bastia 67% | Caen 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Caen | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 31% | Draw 40% | Caen 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 20% | BTTS 30% | xG Bastia 0.77 / Caen 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 0.882 / def 1.038 | Caen attack 0.684 / def 1.091 | league avg home 0.801 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Caen xG
30%
BTTS
47%
Over 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bastia vs Caen kick off?
Bastia vs Caen kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Caen?
Bastia 1 - 1 Caen.
Where is Bastia vs Caen being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs Caen part of?
Bastia vs Caen is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Caen?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 31% chance of winning, Caen a 30% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Caen?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Bastia and Caen will score (BTTS).
Will Bastia vs Caen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 20%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Caen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bastia and Caen in?
Bastia (all comps): 1W-3D-3L in 7 | 0.86 PPG | GF 0.71 / GA 1.14 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Caen (all comps): 3W-1D-3L in 7 | 1.43 PPG | GF 1.14 / GA 0.86 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bastia's attack rating (0.88) and Caen's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 0.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Caen's attack versus Bastia's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 23.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.2%), 0-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.25
40%
2.53
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
21.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
0 – 1
16.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Bastia xG
Total xG
1.52
0.75
Caen xG
3.25
31%
Home win
2.53
40%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
45%
Over 1.5
2.22
55%
Under 1.5
1.82
20%
Over 2.5
5.00
80%
Under 2.5
1.25
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.34
70%
BTTS No
1.43
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
46%
2.16
Win to Nil
14%
6.90
14%
7.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.8 | 16.4 | 6.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 12.6 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 6.5 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Caen?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 23.5%.
How many goals are Bastia and Caen expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Bastia and 0.75 for Caen, a combined total of 1.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Caen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 7 outings, Bastia have picked up 0.86 PPG on a 1W 3D 3L record — L-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Bastia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Caen's form line: 3W 1D 3L from 7 games, 1.43 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Caen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Caen are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bastia.
Venue Form
On home soil, Bastia have posted 1.00 PPG from 3 outings (0W 3D 0L).
On the road, Caen have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Bastia are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Caen are on 1.14 scored and 0.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Caen in 29%.
Defensively: Caen in 57% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Early Season
Caen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bastia and Caen in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 1W 3D 3L in their last 7 games (0.86 PPG), while Caen have gone 3W 1D 3L in their last 7 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Caen away?
Caen's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.00 PPG; Caen away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Bastia or Caen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Caen in 57%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Bastia's record when hosting Caen specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Bastia
1
Draws
5
Caen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Caen?
From 8 meetings on record, Bastia have won 2, Caen have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Caen last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Bastia 2-1 Caen.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and Caen?
Caen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Caen see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Bastia 67% BTTS, Caen 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Bastia and 0% for Caen.
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Caen in 67%; Bastia have failed to score in 33% of games; Caen in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Caen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bastia play Caen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Bastia's recent matches and 0% of Caen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bastia vs Caen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Bastia's recent games and 0% of Caen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and Caen tend to score early?
Bastia have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Caen in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bastia and Caen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 8, as Bastia and Caen drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 0.77 xG and Caen 0.75 xG, a combined 1.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.88 / defence 1.04 against Caen attack 0.68 / defence 1.09, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 31% | Draw 40% | Caen 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 47% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 29%, Caen 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Caen's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Caen arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.