Auxerre 1-0 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Auxerre at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Auxerre vs Rodez fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 9 as Auxerre welcome Rodez to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 21 September 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Auxerre stand at 4W 3D 1L from 8 Ligue 2 matches — 1.88 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.88 goals per game, with 0.62 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.62 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets from 8 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Auxerre have gone 2W 1D 1L this season (4 games, 1.75 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 clean sheets from 4 home games (75%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Rodez — All Games: 3W 3D 2L from 8 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.12 per game is modest, conceding 1.25 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets in 8 outings (38%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Rodez have posted 2W 1D 1L from 4 away outings — 1.75 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.88 PPG (Auxerre) versus 1.50 (Rodez). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Auxerre trading profile (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Rodez trading profile (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 50% versus Rodez 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 62% | Rodez 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.45 xG and Rodez 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 1.355 / defence 0.989 | Rodez attack 0.963 / defence 1.290. League average goals — home 0.830 / away 1.059. Auxerre carry an above-average attack strength of 1.355 — their λ of 1.45 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Rodez bring a strong defensive rating of 1.290 — this is suppressing Auxerre's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Auxerre games / 8 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 44% | Draw 34% | Rodez 23%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.27 | Draw 2.94 | Rodez 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Auxerre as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Auxerre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Auxerre 25% | Rodez 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Sep 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 44% | Draw 34% | Rodez 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Auxerre 1.45 / Rodez 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 1.355 / def 0.989 | Rodez attack 0.963 / def 1.290 | league avg home 0.830 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Rodez xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Rodez kick off?
Auxerre vs Rodez kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 21 September 2021 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Rodez?
Auxerre 1 - 0 Rodez.
Where is Auxerre vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Rodez part of?
Auxerre vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 44% chance of winning, Rodez a 23% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Auxerre and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Rodez?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Auxerre and Rodez in?
Auxerre (all comps): 4W-3D-1L in 8 | 1.88 PPG | GF 1.88 / GA 0.62 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Rodez (all comps): 3W-3D-2L in 8 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.12 / GA 1.25 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Auxerre's attack at 1.35x the league average against Rodez's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rodez's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
44%
2.30
34%
2.94
23%
4.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.46
1.01
Rodez xG
2.30
44%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
4.44
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
16%
6.30
5%
18.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.5 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.01 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Auxerre's recent record stands at 4W 3D 1L from 8 games, a 1.88 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rodez, meanwhile, have gone 3W 3D 2L across 8 games — 1.50 PPG, with D-W-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Auxerre on 1.88 PPG, Rodez on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Auxerre have managed 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rodez's away record stands at 2W 1D 1L across 4 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Auxerre are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.12 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Rodez in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Rodez
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Rodez in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 4W 3D 1L in their last 8 games (1.88 PPG), while Rodez have gone 3W 3D 2L in their last 8 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Rodez away?
Auxerre's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.75 PPG; Rodez away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Rodez been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Rodez in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Auxerre and Rodez runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Auxerre's record when hosting Rodez specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Auxerre
0
Draws
1
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Rodez?
From 4 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 3, Rodez have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when Rodez 2-0 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Rodez?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 25%, Rodez 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Auxerre and 50% for Rodez. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Rodez?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Auxerre's recent matches and 50% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Auxerre's matches and 50% of Rodez's.
Do Auxerre and Rodez tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Rodez in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Auxerre edge out Rodez 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Rodez 1-0 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.45 xG and Rodez 1.01 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rodez landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 1.35 / defence 0.99 against Rodez attack 0.96 / defence 1.29, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 44% | Draw 34% | Rodez 23%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 62%, Rodez 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Rodez's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.88 PPG, Rodez 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Auxerre win broke the near-deadlock. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Rodez (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.