Auxerre 1-0 Quevilly – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Auxerre at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Auxerre vs Quevilly fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Auxerre host Quevilly at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 February 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Auxerre — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Auxerre at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Quevilly stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Quevilly away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Auxerre at 1.30 PPG versus Quevilly's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Auxerre, 0 for Quevilly and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Auxerre trading profile (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Quevilly trading profile (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 52% versus Quevilly 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 52% | Quevilly 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.65 xG and Quevilly 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 1.096 / defence 1.351 | Quevilly attack 0.698 / defence 1.488. League average goals — home 1.010 / away 0.975. Quevilly bring a strong defensive rating of 1.488 — this is suppressing Auxerre's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Auxerre games / 25 Quevilly games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 54% | Draw 26% | Quevilly 20%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Quevilly 5.00. Auxerre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Auxerre as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Auxerre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Auxerre 70% | Quevilly 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Quevilly | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 54% | Draw 26% | Quevilly 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Auxerre 1.65 / Quevilly 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 1.096 / def 1.351 | Quevilly attack 0.698 / def 1.488 | league avg home 1.010 / away 0.975 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Quevilly xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Quevilly kick off?
Auxerre vs Quevilly kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Quevilly?
Auxerre 1 - 0 Quevilly.
Where is Auxerre vs Quevilly being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Quevilly part of?
Auxerre vs Quevilly is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Quevilly?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 54% chance of winning, Quevilly a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Quevilly?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Auxerre and Quevilly will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Quevilly have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Quevilly?
Record (1 meetings): Auxerre 0W | Draws 1 | Quevilly 0W.
What form are Auxerre and Quevilly in?
Auxerre (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-D-W. Quevilly (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Auxerre's attack at 1.10x the league average against Quevilly's defence at 1.49x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Quevilly's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
54%
1.87
26%
3.77
20%
5.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.57
0.92
Quevilly xG
1.87
54%
Home win
3.77
26%
Draw
5.01
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
19%
5.20
Win to Nil
21%
4.69
4%
26.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 11.6 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Quevilly?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Quevilly expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Auxerre and 0.92 for Quevilly, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Quevilly?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Auxerre's recent record stands at 11W 9D 5L from 25 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Quevilly, meanwhile, have gone 7W 8D 10L across 25 games — 1.16 PPG, with L-D-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Quevilly is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Auxerre by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Quevilly heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Auxerre have managed 5W 4D 3L from 12 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Quevilly's away record stands at 4W 1D 7L across 12 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Auxerre are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Quevilly are on 0.92 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Quevilly
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Quevilly in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 11W 9D 5L in their last 25 games (1.68 PPG), while Quevilly have gone 7W 8D 10L in their last 25 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Quevilly away?
Auxerre's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.58 PPG; Quevilly away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Quevilly been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Quevilly in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Auxerre's record when hosting Quevilly specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Auxerre
1
Draws
1
Quevilly
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Quevilly?
From 4 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 2, Quevilly have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Quevilly last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2024, when Quevilly 4-3 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Quevilly?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 58%, Quevilly 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Auxerre and 58% for Quevilly. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 8% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Quevilly in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Quevilly away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Quevilly?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Auxerre's recent matches and 42% of Quevilly's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Quevilly usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Auxerre's matches and 58% of Quevilly's.
Do Auxerre and Quevilly tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Quevilly in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Auxerre edge out Quevilly 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Quevilly 1-0 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.65 xG and Quevilly 0.92 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Quevilly landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 1.10 / defence 1.35 against Quevilly attack 0.70 / defence 1.49, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 54% | Draw 26% | Quevilly 20%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 52%, Quevilly 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Quevilly's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Quevilly (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.