Auxerre 4-1 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Auxerre at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Auxerre vs PAU fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Auxerre host PAU at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Auxerre — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Auxerre's home record at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps: 4W 2D 1L from 7 Ligue 2 appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 7 home games (71%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, PAU have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAU's away record: 1W 2D 3L from 6 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.83 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.83 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Auxerre at 1.80 PPG versus PAU's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Auxerre in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
PAU in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 43% versus PAU 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 57% | PAU 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.34 xG and PAU 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 1.201 / defence 0.958 | PAU attack 0.723 / defence 1.238. League average goals — home 0.902 / away 1.013. PAU bring a strong defensive rating of 1.238 — this is suppressing Auxerre's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Auxerre games / 14 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 52% | Draw 29% | PAU 19%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 1.92 | Draw 3.45 | PAU 5.26. Auxerre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Auxerre are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Auxerre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 29% | PAU 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 52% | Draw 29% | PAU 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 38% | xG Auxerre 1.34 / PAU 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 1.201 / def 0.958 | PAU attack 0.723 / def 1.238 | league avg home 0.902 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
0.70
PAU xG
38%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs PAU kick off?
Auxerre vs PAU kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs PAU?
Auxerre 4 - 1 PAU.
Where is Auxerre vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs PAU part of?
Auxerre vs PAU is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 52% chance of winning, PAU a 19% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Auxerre and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and PAU?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Auxerre and PAU in?
Auxerre (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. PAU (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Auxerre's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against PAU's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, PAU's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
52%
1.93
29%
3.45
19%
5.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.04
0.70
PAU xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
5.20
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
50%
2.02
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
26%
3.89
5%
19.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 9.1 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.4 | 12.2 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 8.2 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Auxerre and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Auxerre and 0.70 for PAU, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Auxerre come into this having played 14 games, going 7W 5D 2L for 1.86 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-W. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PAU sit at 1.50 PPG from 14 outings (6W 3D 5L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Auxerre on 1.86 PPG, PAU on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Auxerre's home form reads 3W 2D 1L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, PAU have taken 0.83 points per game from 6 outings (1W 2D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of PAU's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Auxerre are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.00 scored and 0.86 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; PAU in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
PAU
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and PAU in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 7W 5D 2L in their last 14 games (1.86 PPG), while PAU have gone 6W 3D 5L in their last 14 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or PAU away?
Auxerre's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.83 PPG; PAU away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Auxerre or PAU been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, PAU in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Auxerre and PAU runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2021, when Auxerre won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Auxerre's record when hosting PAU specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Auxerre
2
Draws
0
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and PAU?
From 4 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 2, PAU have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2024, when PAU 2-2 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and PAU?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Auxerre 33% BTTS, PAU 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Auxerre) and 33% (PAU).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; PAU in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play PAU?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Auxerre's recent matches and 33% of PAU's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Auxerre's recent games and 33% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and PAU tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, PAU in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Auxerre run riot with a 4-1 hammering of PAU.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat PAU 4-1 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.34 xG and PAU 0.70 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Auxerre beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 1.20 / defence 0.96 against PAU attack 0.72 / defence 1.24, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 52% | Draw 29% | PAU 19%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 57%, PAU 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
PAU's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.86 PPG, PAU 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Auxerre win broke the near-deadlock. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. PAU (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.