Auxerre 2-1 Dijon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Auxerre at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Auxerre vs Dijon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 34 as Auxerre welcome Dijon to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 19 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Auxerre have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Auxerre's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dijon stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Dijon have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Auxerre are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 2 data — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Auxerre, 1 for Dijon and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2021, ended 1–3 with Dijon winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Auxerre in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Dijon in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 58% versus Dijon 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 54% | Dijon 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.33 xG and Dijon 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 1.145 / defence 1.222 | Dijon attack 0.918 / defence 1.244. League average goals — home 0.934 / away 1.036. Dijon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.244 — this is suppressing Auxerre's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Auxerre games / 33 Dijon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 40% | Draw 28% | Dijon 32%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Dijon 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Auxerre are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Auxerre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 70% | Dijon 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Dijon | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 40% | Draw 28% | Dijon 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Auxerre 1.33 / Dijon 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 1.145 / def 1.222 | Dijon attack 0.918 / def 1.244 | league avg home 0.934 / away 1.036 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Dijon xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Dijon kick off?
Auxerre vs Dijon kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 19 April 2022 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Dijon?
Auxerre 2 - 1 Dijon.
Where is Auxerre vs Dijon being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Dijon part of?
Auxerre vs Dijon is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Dijon?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 40% chance of winning, Dijon a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Dijon?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Auxerre and Dijon will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Dijon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Dijon?
Record (1 meetings): Auxerre 0W | Draws 0 | Dijon 1W.
What form are Auxerre and Dijon in?
Auxerre (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Dijon (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Auxerre's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Dijon's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Dijon's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
40%
2.51
28%
3.51
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.49
1.16
Dijon xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
12%
8.03
8%
11.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.8 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Dijon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Dijon expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.16 for Dijon, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Dijon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Auxerre's recent record stands at 17W 10D 6L from 33 games, a 1.85 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-W in the last five.
Dijon, meanwhile, have gone 12W 6D 15L across 33 games — 1.27 PPG, with W-D-W-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Auxerre by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dijon heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Auxerre have managed 8W 4D 4L from 16 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dijon's away record stands at 4W 4D 8L across 16 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Auxerre are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Dijon are on 1.12 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Current Season
Dijon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Dijon in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 17W 10D 6L in their last 33 games (1.85 PPG), while Dijon have gone 12W 6D 15L in their last 33 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Dijon away?
Auxerre's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.75 PPG; Dijon away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Dijon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Dijon in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Auxerre and Dijon runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Auxerre
0
Draws
1
Dijon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Dijon?
From 2 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 1, Dijon have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Dijon last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2022, when Auxerre 2-1 Dijon.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 56%, Dijon 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Auxerre) and 50% (Dijon). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Dijon in 31%; Dijon in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Dijon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Dijon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Auxerre's recent matches and 50% of Dijon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Dijon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Auxerre's matches and 50% of Dijon's.
Do Auxerre and Dijon tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 94% of their recent matches, Dijon in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Auxerre edge out Dijon 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Dijon 2-1 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.33 xG and Dijon 1.16 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 1.15 / defence 1.22 against Dijon attack 0.92 / defence 1.24, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 40% | Draw 28% | Dijon 32%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 54%, Dijon 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Dijon's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.27. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.