Auxerre 0-0 Ajaccio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Auxerre at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Auxerre vs Ajaccio encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Auxerre and Ajaccio meet at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Auxerre (all games): 2W 0D 0L across 2 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Auxerre have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ajaccio have collected 2.00 PPG across 2 Ligue 2 outings this season: 1W 1D 0L. Last five: D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Ajaccio have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Auxerre. A 1.00 PPG lead over Ajaccio (3.00 vs 2.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.46 xG and Ajaccio 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 1.269 / defence 0.980 | Ajaccio attack 0.931 / defence 1.276. League average goals — home 0.900 / away 1.341. Auxerre carry an above-average attack strength of 1.269 — their λ of 1.46 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Ajaccio bring a strong defensive rating of 1.276 — this is suppressing Auxerre's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Auxerre games / 2 Ajaccio games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Auxerre 39% | Draw 33% | Ajaccio 28%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.56 | Draw 3.03 | Ajaccio 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Auxerre are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Auxerre if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Ajaccio | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 39% | Draw 33% | Ajaccio 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 58% | xG Auxerre 1.46 / Ajaccio 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 1.269 / def 0.980 | Ajaccio attack 0.931 / def 1.276 | league avg home 0.900 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Ajaccio xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Ajaccio kick off?
Auxerre vs Ajaccio kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 7 August 2021 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Ajaccio?
Auxerre 0 - 0 Ajaccio.
Where is Auxerre vs Ajaccio being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Ajaccio part of?
Auxerre vs Ajaccio is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Ajaccio?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 39% chance of winning, Ajaccio a 28% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Ajaccio?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Auxerre and Ajaccio will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Ajaccio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Ajaccio?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Auxerre and Ajaccio in?
Auxerre (all comps): 2W-0D-0L in 2 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W. Ajaccio (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Auxerre's attack at 1.27x the league average against Ajaccio's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ajaccio's attack (0.93x) against Auxerre's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
39%
2.57
33%
3.03
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.68
1.22
Ajaccio xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
11%
8.74
7%
15.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.2 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Ajaccio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Ajaccio expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.22 for Ajaccio, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Ajaccio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 2 outings, Auxerre have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 2W 0D 0L record — W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Auxerre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ajaccio's form line: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, 2.00 PPG, last five D-W. It's still early in the season for Ajaccio, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Auxerre are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ajaccio.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Auxerre are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Ajaccio are on 2.50 scored and 1.50 conceded. Ajaccio's attacking output running into Auxerre's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Ajaccio in 100%.
Defensively: Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Early Season
Ajaccio
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Ajaccio in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 games (3.00 PPG), while Ajaccio have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have Auxerre or Ajaccio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Ajaccio in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Auxerre have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Auxerre won 0-3 on 9 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Auxerre have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ajaccio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Auxerre
2
Draws
0
Ajaccio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Ajaccio?
From 6 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 4, Ajaccio have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Ajaccio last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2024, when Ajaccio 0-1 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Ajaccio?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Ajaccio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Ajaccio?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Auxerre's games and 100% of Ajaccio's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Auxerre vs Ajaccio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Auxerre's matches and 100% of Ajaccio's.
Do Auxerre and Ajaccio tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Ajaccio in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Auxerre's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 3, as Auxerre and Ajaccio drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.46 xG and Ajaccio 1.22 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Auxerre fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Ajaccio landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 1.27 / defence 0.98 against Ajaccio attack 0.93 / defence 1.28, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 39% | Draw 33% | Ajaccio 28%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 100%, Ajaccio 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 2.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Auxerre managed 0 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Ajaccio managed 0 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.