Annecy 0-3 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rodez at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Annecy vs Rodez encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Rodez travel to Parc des Sports to take on Annecy. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 April 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Annecy — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Annecy's home record at Parc des Sports: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Annecy are significantly better at Parc des Sports than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Rodez have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Rodez have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Rodez — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Annecy, 0 for Rodez and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Annecy in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Rodez in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 39% versus Rodez 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 45% | Rodez 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.09 xG and Rodez 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.909 / defence 1.005 | Rodez attack 1.021 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.253 / away 1.067. Data: 31 Annecy games / 69 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 35% | Draw 29% | Rodez 35%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Rodez 2.86. The draw (29%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 29% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 40% | Rodez 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Apr 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 35% | Draw 29% | Rodez 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Annecy 1.09 / Rodez 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.909 / def 1.005 | Rodez attack 1.021 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.253 / away 1.067 • Poisson stance: Draw (29%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Rodez xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Rodez kick off?
Annecy vs Rodez kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 22 April 2023 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Rodez?
Annecy 0 - 3 Rodez.
Where is Annecy vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Rodez part of?
Annecy vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 35% chance of winning, Rodez a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Annecy and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Rodez?
Record (1 meetings): Annecy 0W | Draws 1 | Rodez 0W.
What form are Annecy and Rodez in?
Annecy (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Rodez (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Annecy's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Rodez's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. The same calculation in reverse, Rodez's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
35%
2.83
29%
3.42
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.19
1.09
Rodez xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
12%
8.47
12%
8.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 12.3 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Annecy and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Annecy and 1.09 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Annecy's recent record stands at 9W 9D 13L from 31 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five.
Rodez, meanwhile, have gone 9W 10D 12L across 31 games — 1.19 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Annecy on 1.16 PPG, Rodez on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Annecy have managed 7W 3D 5L from 15 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.16 PPG overall — Annecy are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Rodez's away record stands at 5W 5D 5L across 15 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Annecy are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.00 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Current Season
Rodez
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Rodez in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 9W 9D 13L in their last 31 games (1.16 PPG), while Rodez have gone 9W 10D 12L in their last 31 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Rodez away?
Annecy's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.60 PPG; Rodez away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Annecy or Rodez been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Rodez in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Annecy and Rodez runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Rodez have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Nov 2024, when Rodez won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Annecy's record when hosting Rodez specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Annecy
2
Draws
5
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Rodez?
From 8 meetings on record, Annecy have won 1, Rodez have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Annecy 1-2 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Rodez?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Rodez see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 33%, Rodez 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Annecy and 33% for Rodez.
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Rodez in 33%; Annecy have failed to score in 40% of games; Rodez in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Rodez?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Annecy's recent matches and 40% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Annecy's recent games and 33% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Rodez tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Rodez in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rodez run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Annecy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez beat Annecy 0-3 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.09 xG and Rodez 1.09 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Annecy fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Rodez outscored their 1.09 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.91 / defence 1.00 against Rodez attack 1.02 / defence 0.96, drawn from 31/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 35% | Draw 29% | Rodez 35%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Rodez win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 45%, Rodez 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rodez's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.16 PPG, Rodez 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rodez win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rodez (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.