Annecy 2-1 RED Star FC 93 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RED Star FC 93 at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Annecy face RED Star FC 93.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
RED Star FC 93 make the trip to Parc des Sports to face Annecy in Ligue 2 (matchday 24). The match kicks off on Friday 20 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Annecy have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Annecy have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
RED Star FC 93 (all games): 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, RED Star FC 93 have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Annecy, 1.40 for RED Star FC 93 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Annecy, 1 for RED Star FC 93 and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 29 Aug 2025, ended Annecy 0–1 RED Star FC 93 — a RED Star FC 93 win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Annecy half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
RED Star FC 93 half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 46% versus RED Star FC 93 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 41% | RED Star FC 93 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.02 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 1.067 / defence 0.864 | RED Star FC 93 attack 1.045 / defence 0.822. League average goals — home 1.164 / away 1.207. Data: built from Annecy's last 57 games and RED Star FC 93's last 56.
Result probabilities: Annecy 33% | Draw 30% | RED Star FC 93 37%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 3.00 | Draw 3.35 | RED Star FC 93 2.72. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is RED Star FC 93 at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RED Star FC 93 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Annecy's last 10 home games and RED Star FC 93's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Annecy 60% (last 10 home games) | RED Star FC 93 20% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs RED Star FC 93 | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 24 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Friday 20 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 33% | Draw 30% | RED Star FC 93 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Annecy 1.02 / RED Star FC 93 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 1.067 / def 0.864 | RED Star FC 93 attack 1.045 / def 0.822 | league avg home 1.164 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: RED Star FC 93 (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.09
RED Star FC 93 xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Annecy vs RED Star FC 93 FAQs
What time does Annecy vs RED Star FC 93 kick off?
Annecy vs RED Star FC 93 kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 20 February 2026 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs RED Star FC 93?
Annecy 2 - 1 RED Star FC 93.
Where is Annecy vs RED Star FC 93 being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs RED Star FC 93 part of?
Annecy vs RED Star FC 93 is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 24) (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs RED Star FC 93?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 33% chance of winning, RED Star FC 93 a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making RED Star FC 93 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs RED Star FC 93?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Annecy and RED Star FC 93 will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Annecy vs RED Star FC 93 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Annecy's attack at 1.07x the league average against RED Star FC 93's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — RED Star FC 93's attack (1.04x) against Annecy's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from Annecy's last 57 games and RED Star FC 93's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RED Star FC 93 Win
33%
3.00
30%
3.35
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.11
1.09
RED Star FC 93 xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
11%
8.91
13%
7.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 13.2 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Annecy vs RED Star FC 93 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs RED Star FC 93?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Annecy and RED Star FC 93 expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Annecy and 1.09 for RED Star FC 93, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs RED Star FC 93?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 56 outings, Annecy have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 22W 15D 19L record — W-W-W-D-D across the most recent five.
RED Star FC 93's form line: 19W 18D 19L from 56 games, 1.34 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Annecy against 1.34 for RED Star FC 93. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Annecy have posted 1.71 PPG from their last 28 home games (13W 9D 6L).
On the road, RED Star FC 93 have gone 9W 9D 10L from their last 28 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Annecy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Annecy are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; RED Star FC 93 are on 1.18 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Blended
RED Star FC 93
Blended
Annecy (Home) vs RED Star FC 93 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Annecy
Blended
RED Star FC 93
Blended
❓ Annecy vs RED Star FC 93 Form FAQs
What form are Annecy and RED Star FC 93 in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 22W 15D 19L in their last 56 games (1.45 PPG), while RED Star FC 93 have gone 19W 18D 19L in their last 56 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or RED Star FC 93 away?
Annecy's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.71 PPG; RED Star FC 93 away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Annecy or RED Star FC 93 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, RED Star FC 93 in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Annecy and RED Star FC 93, the earliest from October 2024. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 20 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Annecy have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against RED Star FC 93 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Annecy
0
Draws
1
RED Star FC 93
Recent Meetings
❓ Annecy vs RED Star FC 93 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and RED Star FC 93?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Annecy have won 3, RED Star FC 93 have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and RED Star FC 93 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 February 2026: Annecy 2-1 RED Star FC 93.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and RED Star FC 93?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 46%, RED Star FC 93 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Annecy) and 46% (RED Star FC 93).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; RED Star FC 93 in 32%; RED Star FC 93 in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / RED Star FC 93 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Annecy vs RED Star FC 93 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Annecy and RED Star FC 93 matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Annecy's recent matches and 46% of RED Star FC 93's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Annecy and RED Star FC 93 matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Annecy's recent games and 46% of RED Star FC 93's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and RED Star FC 93 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Annecy's recent matches and 75% of RED Star FC 93's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Annecy defy the odds to beat RED Star FC 93 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat RED Star FC 93 2-1 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.02 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.09 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Annecy beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 1.07 / defence 0.86 against RED Star FC 93 attack 1.04 / defence 0.82, drawn from 57/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 33% | Draw 30% | RED Star FC 93 37%, with RED Star FC 93 to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Annecy win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 41%, RED Star FC 93 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
RED Star FC 93's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.45 PPG, RED Star FC 93 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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