Annecy 0-0 Metz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Annecy at 59% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Annecy face Metz.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Parc des Sports plays host to Annecy versus Metz in Ligue 2 (matchday 16). Kick-off: Saturday 14 December 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Annecy have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Annecy's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 0D 3L (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Metz (all games): 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 — 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Metz have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Annecy against 1.90 for Metz. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Annecy, 1 for Metz and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 2 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 4 Mar 2023, ended Annecy 0–3 Metz — a Metz win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Annecy — key trading statistics (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Metz — key trading statistics (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 53% versus Metz 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 55% | Metz 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.58 xG and Metz 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 1.106 / defence 0.779 | Metz attack 0.881 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 0.982. Annecy have a tight defence (rating 0.779), which is pulling Metz's projected output down. Data: built from Annecy's last 53 games and Metz's last 15.
Result probabilities: Annecy 59% | Draw 25% | Metz 16%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 1.69 | Draw 4.00 | Metz 6.37. The model has a clear lean to Annecy (59%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Annecy 30% (last 10 home games) | Metz 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Metz | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 16 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Saturday 14 December 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 59% | Draw 25% | Metz 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Annecy 1.58 / Metz 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 1.106 / def 0.779 | Metz attack 0.881 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.412 / away 0.982 • Poisson stance: Annecy (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Metz xG
39%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Annecy vs Metz FAQs
What time does Annecy vs Metz kick off?
Annecy vs Metz kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 14 December 2024 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Metz?
Annecy 0 - 0 Metz.
Where is Annecy vs Metz being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Metz part of?
Annecy vs Metz is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 16) (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Metz?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 59% chance of winning, Metz a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Metz?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Annecy and Metz will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Annecy vs Metz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Annecy's attack at 1.11x the league average against Metz's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Metz's attack (0.88x) against Annecy's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.67.
These ratings are built from Annecy's last 53 games and Metz's last 15 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.1%), 1-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
59%
1.69
25%
4.00
16%
6.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.1%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.26
0.67
Metz xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
6.37
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
30%
3.31
3%
31.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 11.2 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.1 | 8.8 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Annecy vs Metz Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Metz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Annecy and Metz expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Annecy and 0.67 for Metz, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Metz?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Annecy come into this having played 51 games, going 19W 14D 18L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-W.
On the other side, Metz sit at 1.14 PPG from 51 outings (16W 10D 25L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Annecy against 1.14 for Metz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Annecy's home form reads 11W 6D 8L across their last 25 home games, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Metz have taken 1.08 points per game from their last 25 away games (8W 3D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Annecy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Annecy are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Metz are on 1.22 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Defensively: Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Blended
Metz
Blended
Annecy (Home) vs Metz (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Annecy
Blended
Metz
Blended
❓ Annecy vs Metz Form FAQs
What form are Annecy and Metz in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 19W 14D 18L in their last 51 games (1.39 PPG), while Metz have gone 16W 10D 25L in their last 51 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Metz away?
Annecy's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.56 PPG; Metz away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Annecy or Metz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Metz in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 5 H2H matches between Annecy and Metz, the earliest from September 2022. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Metz won Metz 5-1 Annecy on 8 Mar 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Annecy have gone 0W 2D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Metz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Annecy
3
Draws
2
Metz
Recent Meetings
❓ Annecy vs Metz H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Metz?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Annecy have won 0, Metz have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Metz last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Annecy 1-1 Metz.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Metz?
Metz have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 44%, Metz 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Annecy) and 52% (Metz).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Metz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Annecy vs Metz Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Annecy and Metz matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Annecy's recent matches and 56% of Metz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Annecy and Metz matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Annecy's recent games and 52% of Metz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Metz matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Annecy's recent matches and 64% of Metz's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Annecy's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 16, as Annecy and Metz drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.58 xG and Metz 0.67 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Annecy fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 1.11 / defence 0.78 against Metz attack 0.88 / defence 1.01, drawn from 53/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 59% | Draw 25% | Metz 16%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 55%, Metz 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Metz's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.39 PPG, Metz 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Annecy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Metz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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