Annecy 2-4 Martigues – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Annecy at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Annecy vs Martigues encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Parc des Sports plays host to Annecy versus Martigues in Ligue 2 (matchday 2). Kick-off: Friday 23 August 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Current Form
Annecy's record over their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Annecy's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.90 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Martigues have collected 0.00 PPG across their last 1 games: 0W 0D 1L. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.
The points-per-game gap of 1.90 in Annecy's favour (1.90 vs 0.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.48 xG and Martigues 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.987 / defence 1.064 | Martigues attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.115. Data: built from Annecy's last 39 games and Martigues's last 1. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Annecy 48% | Draw 27% | Martigues 25%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.09 | Draw 3.71 | Martigues 3.96. Annecy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Annecy at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Annecy if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Annecy's last 10 home games and Martigues's last 1 games) averaging 1.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's sample (Annecy 39 games, Martigues 1) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Martigues | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 2 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Friday 23 August 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 48% | Draw 27% | Martigues 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Annecy 1.48 / Martigues 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.987 / def 1.064 | Martigues attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.308 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Annecy (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Martigues xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Annecy vs Martigues FAQs
What time does Annecy vs Martigues kick off?
Annecy vs Martigues kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 23 August 2024 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Martigues?
Annecy 2 - 4 Martigues.
Where is Annecy vs Martigues being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Martigues part of?
Annecy vs Martigues is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 2) (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Martigues?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 48% chance of winning, Martigues a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Martigues?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Annecy and Martigues will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Annecy vs Martigues have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Annecy's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Martigues's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. Flip it around — Martigues's attack (0.85x) against Annecy's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from Annecy's last 39 games and Martigues's last 1, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
48%
2.09
27%
3.71
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.49
1.01
Martigues xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
17%
5.74
6%
17.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.4 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Annecy vs Martigues Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Martigues?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Annecy and Martigues expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Annecy and 1.01 for Martigues, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Martigues?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Annecy come into this having played 1 games, going 1W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W.
On the other side, Martigues sit at 0.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 0D 1L), a run that reads L across their last five.
Annecy carry the stronger recent form of the two, 3.00 PPG clear of Martigues — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Annecy are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Martigues are on 0.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Annecy's scoring rate against Martigues's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Annecy have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Martigues in 0%.
Defensively: Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Early Season
Martigues
Early Season
Annecy (Home) vs Martigues (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Annecy
Early Season
Martigues
Early Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
❓ Annecy vs Martigues Form FAQs
What form are Annecy and Martigues in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Martigues have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
Have Annecy or Martigues been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Martigues in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Annecy and Martigues, the earliest from August 2024. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 21 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Annecy
0
Draws
2
Martigues
Recent Meetings
❓ Annecy vs Martigues H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Martigues?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Annecy have won 0, Martigues have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Martigues last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 February 2025: Martigues 2-0 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Martigues?
Martigues have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Martigues away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Annecy vs Martigues Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Annecy and Martigues matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Annecy's recent matches and 0% of Martigues's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Annecy and Martigues matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Annecy's recent games and 0% of Martigues's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Martigues matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 0% of Annecy's recent matches and 0% of Martigues's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Martigues cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Annecy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Martigues beat Annecy 2-4 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 2, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.48 xG and Martigues 1.01 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Martigues outscored their 1.01 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.99 / defence 1.06 against Martigues attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 39/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 48% | Draw 27% | Martigues 25%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Martigues win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 0%, Martigues 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Annecy arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Martigues winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Annecy shipped 4 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Martigues scored 4 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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