Annecy 1-4 Guingamp – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Annecy at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Annecy vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Guingamp make the trip to Parc des Sports to face Annecy in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 August 2023 at 18:00 UTC.

Form

Annecy (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Annecy haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Annecy's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Parc des Sports this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parc des Sports. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Annecy are significantly better at Parc des Sports than their overall form suggests.

Guingamp have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Guingamp haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Guingamp have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Guingamp are 0.50 PPG clear of Annecy in recent Ligue 2 fixtures (1.70 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Annecy lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Annecy goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

Guingamp goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 40% versus Guingamp 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 45% | Guingamp 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.18 xG and Guingamp 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.928 / defence 0.935 | Guingamp attack 1.031 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.143. Data: 38 Annecy games / 38 Guingamp games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Annecy 38% | Draw 29% | Guingamp 34%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Guingamp 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Annecy as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Guingamp (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Annecy if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 30% | Guingamp 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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