Annecy 2-0 Ajaccio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Annecy at 41% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Annecy vs Ajaccio encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Parc des Sports plays host to Annecy versus Ajaccio in Ligue 2 (matchday 32). Kick-off: Friday 25 April 2025 at 20:00 UK time.
Current Form
Annecy's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Annecy's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Ajaccio (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Ajaccio's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Annecy, 1.50 for Ajaccio — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record in our data favours Annecy, who have won 3 of the 3 H2H matches we hold against Ajaccio — Ajaccio have 0 wins, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 3 Jan 2025, ended Annecy 2–1 Ajaccio — a Annecy win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Annecy and goals — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Annecy — key trading statistics (last 69 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Ajaccio — key trading statistics (last 69 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 49% versus Ajaccio 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 48% | Ajaccio 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.05 xG and Ajaccio 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.790 / defence 0.974 | Ajaccio attack 0.740 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.100. Annecy's attack rating of 0.790 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.05. Ajaccio's attack rating of 0.740 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.79. Data: built from Annecy's last 69 games and Ajaccio's last 69.
Result probabilities: Annecy 41% | Draw 32% | Ajaccio 27%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.45 | Draw 3.12 | Ajaccio 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Annecy at 41% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Annecy 3 wins from 3 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Annecy if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.84 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 72% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Annecy's last 10 home games and Ajaccio's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Annecy 40% (last 10 home games) | Ajaccio 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Ajaccio | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 32 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Friday 25 April 2025 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 41% | Draw 32% | Ajaccio 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% (Under 72%) | BTTS Yes 36% (No 64%) | xG Annecy 1.05 / Ajaccio 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.790 / def 0.974 | Ajaccio attack 0.740 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: Annecy (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Ajaccio xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Annecy vs Ajaccio FAQs
What time does Annecy vs Ajaccio kick off?
Annecy vs Ajaccio kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 25 April 2025 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Ajaccio?
Annecy 2 - 0 Ajaccio.
Where is Annecy vs Ajaccio being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Ajaccio part of?
Annecy vs Ajaccio is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 32) (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Ajaccio?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 41% chance of winning, Ajaccio a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Ajaccio?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Annecy and Ajaccio will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (64%).
Will Annecy vs Ajaccio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (72%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Annecy's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Ajaccio's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. Flip it around — Ajaccio's attack (0.74x) against Annecy's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from Annecy's last 69 games and Ajaccio's last 69 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
41%
2.45
32%
3.12
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Annecy xG
Total xG
1.84
0.79
Ajaccio xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.82
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
9%
10.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.9 | 12.6 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 13.2 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Annecy vs Ajaccio Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Ajaccio?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are Annecy and Ajaccio expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Annecy and 0.79 for Ajaccio, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Ajaccio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Annecy come into this having played 69 games, going 24W 19D 26L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-D.
On the other side, Ajaccio sit at 1.23 PPG from 69 outings (23W 16D 30L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Annecy against 1.23 for Ajaccio. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Annecy's home form reads 12W 10D 12L across their last 34 home games, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Ajaccio have taken 0.65 points per game from their last 34 away games (5W 7D 22L). That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ajaccio's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Annecy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Annecy are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Ajaccio are on 0.91 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Current Season
Ajaccio
Current Season
Annecy (Home) vs Ajaccio (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Annecy
Current Season
Ajaccio
Current Season
❓ Annecy vs Ajaccio Form FAQs
What form are Annecy and Ajaccio in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 24W 19D 26L in their last 69 games (1.32 PPG), while Ajaccio have gone 23W 16D 30L in their last 69 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Ajaccio away?
Annecy's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.35 PPG; Ajaccio away: 0.65 PPG.
Have Annecy or Ajaccio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Ajaccio in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 25 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Annecy have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Annecy have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Ajaccio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Annecy
0
Draws
0
Ajaccio
Recent Meetings
❓ Annecy vs Ajaccio H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Ajaccio?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Annecy have won 4, Ajaccio have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Ajaccio last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 April 2025: Annecy 2-0 Ajaccio.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Ajaccio?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Ajaccio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 47%, Ajaccio 26% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Annecy) and 35% (Ajaccio).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Annecy have failed to score in 26% of games; Ajaccio in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Ajaccio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Annecy vs Ajaccio Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Annecy and Ajaccio matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Annecy's recent matches and 26% of Ajaccio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Annecy and Ajaccio matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Annecy's recent games and 35% of Ajaccio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Ajaccio matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Annecy's recent matches and 65% of Ajaccio's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Annecy cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ajaccio.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat Ajaccio 2-0 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.05 xG and Ajaccio 0.79 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Annecy beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.79 / defence 0.97 against Ajaccio attack 0.74 / defence 0.95, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 41% | Draw 32% | Ajaccio 27%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 48%, Ajaccio 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ajaccio's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.32 PPG, Ajaccio 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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