Angers 1-0 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Angers at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Angers vs Guingamp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Angers welcome Guingamp to Stade Raymond-Kopa in Ligue 2 (matchday 19). Kick-off is Tuesday 19 December 2023 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Angers stand at 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Angers at home: 8W 2D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Guingamp — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Guingamp have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Angers are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Angers trading profile (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Guingamp trading profile (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Angers 52% versus Guingamp 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Angers 57% | Guingamp 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 1.14 xG and Guingamp 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 1.179 / defence 0.630 | Guingamp attack 1.024 / defence 0.795. League average goals — home 1.216 / away 1.126. Guingamp bring a tight defence (rating 0.795, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Angers's projected output down. Angers have a tight defence (rating 0.630), which is pulling Guingamp's projected output down. Data: built from Angers's last 18 games and Guingamp's last 56.
Result probabilities: Angers 45% | Draw 32% | Guingamp 23%. Fair-value odds: Angers 2.21 | Draw 3.17 | Guingamp 4.32. Angers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS Yes probability 35% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Guingamp's lower xG of 0.73 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Angers as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Angers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.87 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Angers's last 10 home games and Guingamp's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Angers 20% (last 10 home games) | Guingamp 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 19 | Venue: Stade Raymond-Kopa • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 December 2023 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 45% | Draw 32% | Guingamp 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% (Under 71%) | BTTS Yes 35% (No 65%) | xG Angers 1.14 / Guingamp 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 1.179 / def 0.630 | Guingamp attack 1.024 / def 0.795 | league avg home 1.216 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Angers (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Angers xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Guingamp xG
35%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Angers vs Guingamp FAQs
What time does Angers vs Guingamp kick off?
Angers vs Guingamp kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 19 December 2023 at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What was the final score in Angers vs Guingamp?
Angers 1 - 0 Guingamp.
Where is Angers vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Guingamp part of?
Angers vs Guingamp is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 19) (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 45% chance of winning, Guingamp a 23% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Angers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Angers and Guingamp will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (65%).
Will Angers vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (71%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Angers's attack at 1.18x the league average against Guingamp's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Angers's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Angers's last 18 games and Guingamp's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.0%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Angers Win
45%
2.21
32%
3.17
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Angers xG
Total xG
1.87
0.73
Guingamp xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.83
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
22%
4.56
7%
13.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.5 | 11.2 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.6 | 12.8 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Angers vs Guingamp Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Angers and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Angers and 0.73 for Guingamp, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, Angers have picked up 0.98 PPG on a 15W 10D 31L record — D-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Guingamp's form line: 22W 16D 18L from 56 games, 1.46 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Guingamp are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Angers.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Angers have posted 1.25 PPG from their last 28 home games (10W 5D 13L).
On the road, Guingamp have gone 12W 9D 7L from their last 28 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Angers are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.34 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
Angers (Home) vs Guingamp (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Angers
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Angers vs Guingamp Form FAQs
What form are Angers and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 15W 10D 31L in their last 56 games (0.98 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 22W 16D 18L in their last 56 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Angers at home or Guingamp away?
Guingamp's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Angers at home: 1.25 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Angers or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Angers have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Guingamp in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2023. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 23 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Angers
0
Draws
0
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Angers vs Guingamp H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Guingamp?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Angers have won 2, Guingamp have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Angers and Guingamp last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 April 2024: Guingamp 1-2 Angers.
Who has won more matches between Angers and Guingamp?
Angers have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Angers 57%, Guingamp 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Angers) and 39% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Angers keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Guingamp in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Angers vs Guingamp Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Angers and Guingamp matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Angers's games and 54% of Guingamp's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Angers and Guingamp matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Angers's recent games and 39% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Angers and Guingamp matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Angers's recent matches and 64% of Guingamp's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Angers edge out Guingamp 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Angers beat Guingamp 1-0 at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.14 xG and Guingamp 0.73 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 1.18 / defence 0.63 against Guingamp attack 1.02 / defence 0.80, drawn from 18/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Angers 45% | Draw 32% | Guingamp 23%, with Angers to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 57%, Guingamp 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Angers's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Guingamp's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Guingamp arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.98. Form was overturned, with Angers winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Angers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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