Amiens 0-1 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Amiens at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Amiens vs Saint Etienne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Amiens and Saint Etienne meet at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 22 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Amiens's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Amiens have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Saint Etienne (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Saint Etienne have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Amiens's favour (2.00 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Amiens half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Saint Etienne half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 46% versus Saint Etienne 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 40% | Saint Etienne 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 2.02 xG and Saint Etienne 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 1.238 / defence 0.773 | Saint Etienne attack 1.049 / defence 1.352. League average goals — home 1.208 / away 1.112. Saint Etienne bring a strong defensive rating of 1.352 — this is suppressing Amiens's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Amiens's defence rating of 0.773 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 Amiens games / 12 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 63% | Draw 21% | Saint Etienne 16%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Saint Etienne 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Amiens (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Amiens at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Amiens 50% | Saint Etienne 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 63% | Draw 21% | Saint Etienne 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 52% | xG Amiens 2.02 / Saint Etienne 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 1.238 / def 0.773 | Saint Etienne attack 1.049 / def 1.352 | league avg home 1.208 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Amiens (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Saint Etienne xG
52%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Amiens vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Saint Etienne?
Amiens 0 - 1 Saint Etienne.
Where is Amiens vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Saint Etienne part of?
Amiens vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 63% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Amiens and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Saint Etienne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Amiens and Saint Etienne in?
Amiens (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Saint Etienne (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Amiens's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Saint Etienne's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.02. Flip it around — Saint Etienne's attack (1.05x) against Amiens's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 50/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.0%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
63%
1.58
21%
4.84
16%
6.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.92
0.90
Saint Etienne xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.84
21%
Draw
6.27
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
13%
7.55
Win to Nil
26%
3.89
2%
47.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Amiens and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Amiens and 0.90 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Saint Etienne?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Amiens's recent record stands at 16W 19D 15L from 50 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Saint Etienne, meanwhile, have gone 9W 16D 25L across 50 games — 0.86 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Amiens by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Saint Etienne heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Amiens have managed 12W 7D 6L from 25 games — 1.72 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Saint Etienne's away record stands at 3W 8D 14L across 25 trips, a 0.68 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Amiens come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Amiens are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.20 scored and 1.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Saint Etienne in 68%.
Defensively: Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 16W 19D 15L in their last 50 games (1.34 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 9W 16D 25L in their last 50 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Saint Etienne away?
Amiens's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.72 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 0.68 PPG.
Have Amiens or Saint Etienne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Saint Etienne in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Saint Etienne have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Saint Etienne won 5-0 on 9 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Amiens have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Saint Etienne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Amiens
1
Draws
3
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Saint Etienne?
From 6 meetings on record, Amiens have won 2, Saint Etienne have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Saint Etienne 5-0 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Saint Etienne?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Amiens see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 40%, Saint Etienne 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Amiens) and 56% (Saint Etienne).
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Amiens have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Saint Etienne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Amiens's recent matches and 68% of Saint Etienne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amiens vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Amiens's recent games and 56% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Amiens have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Saint Etienne defy the odds to beat Amiens 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat Amiens 0-1 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 2.02 xG and Saint Etienne 0.90 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Amiens fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 1.24 / defence 0.77 against Saint Etienne attack 1.05 / defence 1.35, drawn from 50/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 63% | Draw 21% | Saint Etienne 16%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Saint Etienne win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 40%, Saint Etienne 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Amiens arrived the stronger side — 1.34 PPG against 0.86. Form was overturned, with Saint Etienne winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.