Amiens 3-1 Niort – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Amiens at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Amiens vs Niort fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Niort make the trip to Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne to face Amiens in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Saturday 12 February 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Amiens (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Amiens have posted 4W 4D 2L at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Niort's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Niort, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Niort's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Amiens against 1.70 for Niort. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Amiens lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Amiens — key trading statistics (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 41% of games.
Niort — key trading statistics (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 41% versus Niort 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 36% | Niort 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.35 xG and Niort 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 1.212 / defence 1.015 | Niort attack 0.995 / defence 1.159. League average goals — home 0.964 / away 0.989. Data: 23 Amiens games / 22 Niort games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 43% | Draw 31% | Niort 26%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | Niort 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Amiens as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Amiens if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Amiens 20% | Niort 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Niort | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Feb 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 43% | Draw 31% | Niort 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Amiens 1.35 / Niort 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 1.212 / def 1.015 | Niort attack 0.995 / def 1.159 | league avg home 0.964 / away 0.989 • Poisson stance: Amiens (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Niort xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Niort kick off?
Amiens vs Niort kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 12 February 2022 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Niort?
Amiens 3 - 1 Niort.
Where is Amiens vs Niort being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Niort part of?
Amiens vs Niort is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Niort?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 43% chance of winning, Niort a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Niort?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Amiens and Niort will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Niort have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Niort?
Record (1 meetings): Amiens 0W | Draws 1 | Niort 0W.
What form are Amiens and Niort in?
Amiens (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Niort (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Amiens's attack rating (1.21) and Niort's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Niort's attack (0.99x) against Amiens's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 23/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
43%
2.33
31%
3.20
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.35
1.00
Niort xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
16%
6.32
7%
15.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.9 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Niort?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Amiens and Niort expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Amiens and 1.00 for Niort, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Niort?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 22 outings, Amiens have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 5W 11D 6L record — L-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Niort's form line: 10W 5D 7L from 22 games, 1.59 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-D. The sample for Niort is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Niort are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Amiens.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Amiens have posted 1.45 PPG from 11 outings (4W 4D 3L).
On the road, Niort have gone 4W 3D 4L from 11 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Amiens are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Niort are on 1.23 scored and 0.95 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Niort in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Blended
Niort
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Niort in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 5W 11D 6L in their last 22 games (1.18 PPG), while Niort have gone 10W 5D 7L in their last 22 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Niort away?
Amiens's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.45 PPG; Niort away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Amiens or Niort been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Niort in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Amiens have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Amiens won 3-0 on 17 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Amiens have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Niort — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Amiens
1
Draws
0
Niort
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Niort?
From 4 meetings on record, Amiens have won 3, Niort have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Niort last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2023, when Niort 1-3 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Niort?
Amiens have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Niort are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 27% (Amiens) and 36% (Niort) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Amiens) and 54% (Niort).
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Niort in 36%; Amiens have failed to score in 46% of games; Niort in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Niort away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Niort?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Amiens's recent matches and 36% of Niort's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amiens vs Niort usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Amiens's recent games and 54% of Niort's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and Niort tend to score early?
Amiens have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Niort in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Amiens cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Niort.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amiens beat Niort 3-1 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.35 xG and Niort 1.00 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Amiens beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 1.21 / defence 1.01 against Niort attack 0.99 / defence 1.16, drawn from 23/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 43% | Draw 31% | Niort 26%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 36%, Niort 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Niort's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Niort arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Amiens winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Amiens (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm. Niort (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.