Amiens 1-2 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Guingamp at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Amiens vs Guingamp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Guingamp travel to Stade de la Licorne to take on Amiens. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 November 2025, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Amiens stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amiens's home record at Stade de la Licorne: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Guingamp have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L D W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Guingamp have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Guingamp's 1.60 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Amiens's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Amiens, 2 for Guingamp and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2025, ended 3–2 with Amiens winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Amiens trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Guingamp trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 50% versus Guingamp 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 54% | Guingamp 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.26 xG and Guingamp 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.855 / defence 1.115 | Guingamp attack 1.105 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.289 / away 1.200. Data: 48 Amiens games / 48 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 32% | Draw 25% | Guingamp 42%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 3.12 | Draw 4.00 | Guingamp 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Amiens dominate the H2H record, yet Guingamp are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Amiens 50% | Guingamp 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade de la Licorne • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 32% | Draw 25% | Guingamp 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Amiens 1.26 / Guingamp 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 0.855 / def 1.115 | Guingamp attack 1.105 / def 1.140 | league avg home 1.289 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Guingamp xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Guingamp kick off?
Amiens vs Guingamp kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Stade de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Guingamp?
Amiens 1 - 2 Guingamp.
Where is Amiens vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Guingamp part of?
Amiens vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 32% chance of winning, Guingamp a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Amiens and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Guingamp?
Record (8 meetings): Amiens 4W | Draws 2 | Guingamp 2W.
What form are Amiens and Guingamp in?
Amiens (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Guingamp (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Amiens's attack rating (0.85) and Guingamp's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Amiens's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
32%
3.11
25%
3.93
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.74
1.48
Guingamp xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
23%
4.39
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
7%
13.64
12%
8.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.6 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.1 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.6 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Amiens and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Amiens and 1.48 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, Amiens have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 17W 7D 24L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guingamp's form line: 21W 9D 18L from 48 games, 1.50 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-D. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Amiens on 1.21 PPG, Guingamp on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Amiens have posted 1.67 PPG from 24 outings (12W 4D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Amiens are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Guingamp have gone 10W 3D 11L from 24 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Amiens are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.56 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 17W 7D 24L in their last 48 games (1.21 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 21W 9D 18L in their last 48 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Guingamp away?
Amiens's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.67 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Guingamp have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Jan 2022, when Amiens won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Amiens's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Amiens
2
Draws
4
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Guingamp?
From 10 meetings on record, Amiens have won 4, Guingamp have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Guingamp 1-0 Amiens.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 50%, Guingamp 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Amiens) and 58% (Guingamp). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Amiens's recent matches and 58% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amiens vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Amiens's matches and 58% of Guingamp's.
Do Amiens and Guingamp tend to score early?
Amiens have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Guingamp edge out Amiens 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Amiens 1-2 at Stade de la Licorne, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.26 xG and Guingamp 1.48 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.85 / defence 1.11 against Guingamp attack 1.10 / defence 1.14, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 32% | Draw 25% | Guingamp 42%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 54%, Guingamp 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Guingamp's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 1.21 PPG, Guingamp 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.