Amiens 0-0 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amiens at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Amiens vs Bastia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bastia make the trip to Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne to face Amiens in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Amiens (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Amiens's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Amiens are significantly better at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne than their overall form suggests.
Bastia's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 6D 1L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Bastia have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Amiens, 1.50 for Bastia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Amiens 0W, Bastia 0W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Amiens — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Bastia — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 45% versus Bastia 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Amiens 42% | Bastia 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.52 xG and Bastia 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 1.235 / defence 0.948 | Bastia attack 0.973 / defence 1.250. League average goals — home 0.988 / away 0.967. Bastia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.250 — this is suppressing Amiens's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Amiens games / 31 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 51% | Draw 28% | Bastia 21%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Bastia 4.76. Amiens hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Amiens are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Amiens if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Amiens 30% | Bastia 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 51% | Draw 28% | Bastia 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Amiens 1.52 / Bastia 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 1.235 / def 0.948 | Bastia attack 0.973 / def 1.250 | league avg home 0.988 / away 0.967 • Poisson stance: Amiens (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Bastia xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Bastia kick off?
Amiens vs Bastia kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Bastia?
Amiens 0 - 0 Bastia.
Where is Amiens vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Bastia part of?
Amiens vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 51% chance of winning, Bastia a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Amiens and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Bastia?
Record (1 meetings): Amiens 0W | Draws 1 | Bastia 0W.
What form are Amiens and Bastia in?
Amiens (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Bastia (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Amiens's attack at 1.24x the league average against Bastia's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bastia's attack (0.97x) against Amiens's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
51%
1.96
28%
3.55
21%
4.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.42
0.89
Bastia xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
4.79
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
21%
4.79
5%
22.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.1 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Amiens and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Amiens and 0.89 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 31 outings, Amiens have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 9W 13D 9L record — L-W-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Bastia's form line: 8W 14D 9L from 31 games, 1.23 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Amiens against 1.23 for Bastia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Amiens have posted 1.73 PPG from 15 outings (7W 5D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Amiens are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bastia have gone 4W 2D 9L from 15 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Amiens come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Amiens are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.00 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Bastia in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Current Season
Bastia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Bastia in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 9W 13D 9L in their last 31 games (1.29 PPG), while Bastia have gone 8W 14D 9L in their last 31 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Bastia away?
Amiens's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.73 PPG; Bastia away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Amiens or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Bastia in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Amiens have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bastia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Amiens
5
Draws
1
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Bastia?
From 10 meetings on record, Amiens have won 4, Bastia have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Bastia 1-1 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Bastia?
Amiens have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 33%, Bastia 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Amiens) and 47% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Amiens have failed to score in 33% of games; Bastia in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Bastia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Amiens's recent matches and 53% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amiens vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Amiens's recent games and 47% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and Bastia tend to score early?
Amiens have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Bastia in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Amiens's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 32, as Amiens and Bastia drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.52 xG and Bastia 0.89 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Amiens fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Bastia landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 1.24 / defence 0.95 against Bastia attack 0.97 / defence 1.25, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 51% | Draw 28% | Bastia 21%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 42%, Bastia 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bastia's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 1.29 PPG, Bastia 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward. Bastia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.