Amiens 1-0 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Annecy at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Amiens vs Annecy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Amiens welcome Annecy to Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne in Ligue 2 (matchday 21). Kick-off is Friday 31 January 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Amiens have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Amiens's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Amiens are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Annecy stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Annecy have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Annecy are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Amiens, 2 for Annecy and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.8 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 13 Sep 2024, ended Amiens 0–3 Annecy — a Annecy win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Amiens in-play tendencies (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Annecy in-play tendencies (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 40% versus Annecy 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 38% | Annecy 53%). Note also that Annecy surrender HT leads in 32% of cases while Amiens recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.12 xG and Annecy 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.865 / defence 1.095 | Annecy attack 1.109 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.015. Data: built from Amiens's last 58 games and Annecy's last 58.
Result probabilities: Amiens 33% | Draw 28% | Annecy 39%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 2.99 | Draw 3.58 | Annecy 2.58. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Amiens 40% (last 10 home games) | Annecy 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 21 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Friday 31 January 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 33% | Draw 28% | Annecy 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Amiens 1.12 / Annecy 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 0.865 / def 1.095 | Annecy attack 1.109 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.015 • Poisson stance: Annecy (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Annecy xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Amiens vs Annecy FAQs
What time does Amiens vs Annecy kick off?
Amiens vs Annecy kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 31 January 2025 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Annecy?
Amiens 1 - 0 Annecy.
Where is Amiens vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Annecy part of?
Amiens vs Annecy is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 21) (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 33% chance of winning, Annecy a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Amiens and Annecy will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Amiens vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Amiens's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Annecy's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, Annecy's attack versus Amiens's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Amiens's last 58 games and Annecy's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
33%
2.99
28%
3.58
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.36
1.23
Annecy xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
10%
10.28
13%
7.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 11.7 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.1 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Amiens vs Annecy Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Amiens and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Amiens and 1.23 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Amiens's recent record stands at 20W 19D 19L from 58 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Annecy, meanwhile, have gone 21W 16D 21L across 58 games — 1.36 PPG, with D-W-L-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Amiens on 1.36 PPG, Annecy on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Amiens have managed 11W 12D 6L from their last 29 home games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Annecy's away record stands at 10W 9D 10L across their last 29 away games, a 1.34 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Amiens are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.31 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Annecy in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Blended
Annecy
Blended
Amiens (Home) vs Annecy (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Amiens
Blended
Annecy
Blended
❓ Amiens vs Annecy Form FAQs
What form are Amiens and Annecy in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 20W 19D 19L in their last 58 games (1.36 PPG), while Annecy have gone 21W 16D 21L in their last 58 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Annecy away?
Amiens's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.55 PPG; Annecy away: 1.34 PPG.
Have Amiens or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Annecy in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 16 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Annecy have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 Sep 2024, when Annecy won Annecy 3-0 Amiens.
Amiens's record when hosting Annecy specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Amiens
1
Draws
4
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Amiens vs Annecy H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Annecy?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Amiens have won 3, Annecy have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Amiens and Annecy last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 January 2026: Annecy 2-0 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Annecy?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Amiens see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 45%, Annecy 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Amiens) and 59% (Annecy).
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Annecy in 31%; Amiens have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Amiens vs Annecy Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Amiens and Annecy matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Amiens's recent matches and 59% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Amiens and Annecy matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Amiens's recent games and 59% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and Annecy matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Amiens's recent matches and 62% of Annecy's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Amiens defy the odds to beat Annecy 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amiens beat Annecy 1-0 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.12 xG and Annecy 1.23 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Annecy landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.86 / defence 1.09 against Annecy attack 1.11 / defence 0.98, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 33% | Draw 28% | Annecy 39%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Amiens win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 38%, Annecy 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Annecy's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 1.36 PPG, Annecy 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Amiens win broke the near-deadlock. Amiens (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Annecy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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