Ajaccio 2-1 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as Ajaccio take on Rodez.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ajaccio host Rodez at Stade François Coty in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 February 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Ajaccio have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Ajaccio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajaccio at Stade François Coty this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade François Coty.
Rodez — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Ajaccio carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). Ajaccio's 0% and Rodez's 20% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Ajaccio, 0 for Rodez and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 2–0 with Ajaccio winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Ajaccio in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 8% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 8% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 64% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Rodez in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 48% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Ajaccio 12% | Rodez 28%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ajaccio 8% | Rodez 24%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajaccio 0.84 xG and Rodez 0.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajaccio attack 0.676 / defence 0.834 | Rodez attack 0.708 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.010 / away 0.975. Ajaccio's attack strength of 0.676 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Rodez bring a strong defensive rating of 1.229 — this is suppressing Ajaccio's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Ajaccio games / 25 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajaccio 38% | Draw 40% | Rodez 22%. Fair-value odds: Ajaccio 2.63 | Draw 2.50 | Rodez 4.55. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 17% | BTTS probability 26% | Total xG 1.42. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 83% probability — total xG of 1.42 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 74% — Rodez's lower xG of 0.58 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 26%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 22% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 17% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 26% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ajaccio 0% | Rodez 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajaccio vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stade François Coty • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajaccio 38% | Draw 40% | Rodez 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 17% | BTTS 26% | xG Ajaccio 0.84 / Rodez 0.58 • Poisson strength factors: Ajaccio attack 0.676 / def 0.834 | Rodez attack 0.708 / def 1.229 | league avg home 1.010 / away 0.975 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Ajaccio xG
Expected Goals
0.58
Rodez xG
26%
BTTS
42%
Over 1.5
17%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajaccio vs Rodez kick off?
Ajaccio vs Rodez kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Stade François Coty.
What was the final score in Ajaccio vs Rodez?
Ajaccio 2 - 1 Rodez.
Where is Ajaccio vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade François Coty.
What competition is Ajaccio vs Rodez part of?
Ajaccio vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Ajaccio vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Ajaccio a 38% chance of winning, Rodez a 22% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Ajaccio vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 26% probability that both Ajaccio and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Ajaccio vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 17%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Rodez?
Record (1 meetings): Ajaccio 1W | Draws 0 | Rodez 0W.
What form are Ajaccio and Rodez in?
Ajaccio (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Rodez (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ajaccio's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Rodez's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.84. The same calculation in reverse, Rodez's attack versus Ajaccio's defence, projects 0.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 25.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (18.9%), 1-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 58% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
38%
2.62
40%
2.53
22%
4.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
24.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
20.4%
Home win
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Ajaccio xG
Total xG
1.42
0.58
Rodez xG
2.62
38%
Home win
2.53
40%
Draw
4.47
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
41%
Over 1.5
2.44
59%
Under 1.5
1.69
17%
Over 2.5
5.88
83%
Under 2.5
1.20
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
1%
Over 4.5
100.00
99%
Under 4.5
1.01
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
26%
BTTS Yes
3.87
74%
BTTS No
1.35
Clean Sheet
56%
1.78
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
21%
4.67
10%
10.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 24.3 | 14.0 | 4.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 20.4 | 11.7 | 3.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajaccio vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 25.8%.
How many goals are Ajaccio and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Ajaccio and 0.58 for Rodez, a combined total of 1.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajaccio vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ajaccio's recent record stands at 13W 6D 6L from 25 games, a 1.80 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Ajaccio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rodez, meanwhile, have gone 7W 9D 9L across 25 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-D-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ajaccio by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rodez heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ajaccio have managed 7W 3D 2L from 12 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rodez's away record stands at 4W 3D 5L across 12 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajaccio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ajaccio are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 0.52 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 0.84 scored and 1.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajaccio have seen both teams score in 12% of their recent games; Rodez in 28%.
Defensively: Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 64% of their games; Rodez in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajaccio
Blended
Rodez
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajaccio and Rodez in coming into this match?
Ajaccio have gone 13W 6D 6L in their last 25 games (1.80 PPG), while Rodez have gone 7W 9D 9L in their last 25 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajaccio at home or Rodez away?
Ajaccio's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajaccio at home: 2.00 PPG; Rodez away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Ajaccio or Rodez been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 64% of their recent games, Rodez in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Ajaccio go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Ajaccio's record when hosting Rodez specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Ajaccio
1
Draws
1
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Rodez?
From 6 meetings on record, Ajaccio have won 4, Rodez have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ajaccio and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2025, when Rodez 1-2 Ajaccio.
Who has won more matches between Ajaccio and Rodez?
Ajaccio have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ajaccio tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Ajaccio 8% BTTS, Rodez 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 8% for Ajaccio and 25% for Rodez.
On the defensive side: Ajaccio keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; Rodez in 33%; Ajaccio have failed to score in 42% of games; Rodez in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajaccio home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajaccio play Rodez?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 8% of Ajaccio's recent matches and 33% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ajaccio vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 8% of Ajaccio's recent games and 25% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ajaccio and Rodez tend to score early?
Ajaccio have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Rodez in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ajaccio edge out Rodez 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajaccio beat Rodez 2-1 at Stade François Coty, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajaccio 0.84 xG and Rodez 0.58 xG, a combined 1.42. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Ajaccio beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajaccio attack 0.68 / defence 0.83 against Rodez attack 0.71 / defence 1.23, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajaccio 38% | Draw 40% | Rodez 22%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. The actual Ajaccio win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 17%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 42% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 26% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 16% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajaccio 8%, Rodez 24%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 20%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajaccio's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 12% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 64% of the time, and conceded here.
Rodez's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajaccio arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ajaccio (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm. Rodez (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.