Ajaccio 0-1 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ajaccio at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ajaccio vs Guingamp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ajaccio and Guingamp meet at Stade François Coty in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 12 February 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ajaccio's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Ajaccio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajaccio's home record at Stade François Coty: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.10 conceded per game. 9 clean sheets from 10 home games (90%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade François Coty.
Guingamp have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Ajaccio's 1.70 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Guingamp's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ajaccio lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Ajaccio — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 27% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 9% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 9% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 65% of the time; they fail to score in 39% of games.
Guingamp — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajaccio 13% versus Guingamp 61%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ajaccio 9% | Guingamp 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajaccio 1.01 xG and Guingamp 0.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajaccio attack 0.761 / defence 0.753 | Guingamp attack 0.686 / defence 1.378. League average goals — home 0.964 / away 0.989. Ajaccio's attack strength of 0.761 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Guingamp bring a strong defensive rating of 1.378 — this is suppressing Ajaccio's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Ajaccio's defence rating of 0.753 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 23 Ajaccio games / 23 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajaccio 45% | Draw 38% | Guingamp 17%. Fair-value odds: Ajaccio 2.22 | Draw 2.63 | Guingamp 5.88. Ajaccio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (38%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS probability 27% | Total xG 1.52. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.52 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 73% — Guingamp's lower xG of 0.51 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 27%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ajaccio are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 38% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ajaccio if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.52 combined xG gives a 20% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 27%. Form rates corroborate: Ajaccio 0% | Guingamp 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajaccio vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade François Coty • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Feb 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajaccio 45% | Draw 38% | Guingamp 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 20% | BTTS 27% | xG Ajaccio 1.01 / Guingamp 0.51 • Poisson strength factors: Ajaccio attack 0.761 / def 0.753 | Guingamp attack 0.686 / def 1.378 | league avg home 0.964 / away 0.989 • Poisson stance: Ajaccio (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Ajaccio xG
Expected Goals
0.51
Guingamp xG
27%
BTTS
47%
Over 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajaccio vs Guingamp kick off?
Ajaccio vs Guingamp kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 12 February 2022 at Stade François Coty.
What was the final score in Ajaccio vs Guingamp?
Ajaccio 0 - 1 Guingamp.
Where is Ajaccio vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade François Coty.
What competition is Ajaccio vs Guingamp part of?
Ajaccio vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Ajaccio vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Ajaccio a 45% chance of winning, Guingamp a 17% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making Ajaccio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajaccio vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 27% probability that both Ajaccio and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Ajaccio vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 20%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Guingamp?
Record (1 meetings): Ajaccio 0W | Draws 1 | Guingamp 0W.
What form are Ajaccio and Guingamp in?
Ajaccio (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Guingamp (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ajaccio's attack at 0.76x the league average against Guingamp's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Guingamp's attack (0.69x) against Ajaccio's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 0.51.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 23.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (20.6%), 1-1 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 57% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajaccio Win
45%
2.21
38%
2.63
17%
6.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
22.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
21.8%
Draw
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Ajaccio xG
Total xG
1.52
0.51
Guingamp xG
2.21
45%
Home win
2.63
38%
Draw
6.01
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
45%
Over 1.5
2.22
55%
Under 1.5
1.82
20%
Over 2.5
5.00
80%
Under 2.5
1.25
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
27%
BTTS Yes
3.68
73%
BTTS No
1.37
Clean Sheet
60%
1.67
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
27%
3.68
6%
16.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.8 | 11.2 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 22.0 | 11.3 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 5.7 | 1.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajaccio vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 23.3%.
How many goals are Ajaccio and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Ajaccio and 0.51 for Guingamp, a combined total of 1.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajaccio vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 23 outings, Ajaccio have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 12W 6D 5L record — W-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Ajaccio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guingamp's form line: 6W 9D 8L from 23 games, 1.17 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-D. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Ajaccio are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Guingamp.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ajaccio have posted 2.18 PPG from 11 outings (7W 3D 1L).
On the road, Guingamp have gone 2W 4D 5L from 11 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajaccio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ajaccio are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 0.52 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.09 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajaccio have seen both teams score in 13% of their recent games; Guingamp in 61%.
Defensively: Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 65% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajaccio
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajaccio and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Ajaccio have gone 12W 6D 5L in their last 23 games (1.83 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 6W 9D 8L in their last 23 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajaccio at home or Guingamp away?
Ajaccio's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajaccio at home: 2.18 PPG; Guingamp away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Ajaccio or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 65% of their recent games, Guingamp in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Guingamp have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Guingamp won 3-0 on 18 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ajaccio have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Guingamp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Ajaccio
1
Draws
4
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Guingamp?
From 6 meetings on record, Ajaccio have won 1, Guingamp have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ajaccio and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when Ajaccio 0-3 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Ajaccio and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ajaccio tend to start slowly — only 27% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 9% (Ajaccio) and 46% (Guingamp) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 9% for Ajaccio and 46% for Guingamp.
On the defensive side: Ajaccio keep a clean sheet in 82% of their matches; Ajaccio have failed to score in 36% of games; Guingamp in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajaccio home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajaccio play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 9% of Ajaccio's recent matches and 46% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ajaccio vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 9% of Ajaccio's recent games and 46% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ajaccio and Guingamp tend to score early?
Ajaccio have had a goal before half-time in 27% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Guingamp defy the odds to beat Ajaccio 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Ajaccio 0-1 at Stade François Coty, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajaccio 1.01 xG and Guingamp 0.51 xG, a combined 1.52. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ajaccio fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajaccio attack 0.76 / defence 0.75 against Guingamp attack 0.69 / defence 1.38, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajaccio 45% | Draw 38% | Guingamp 17%, with Ajaccio to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Guingamp win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 47% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 27% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 28% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajaccio 9%, Guingamp 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajaccio's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 13% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 65% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Guingamp's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajaccio arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with Guingamp winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ajaccio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 1 against a 0.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Guingamp (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.