Ajaccio 0-0 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ajaccio at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ajaccio vs Bastia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 10 as Ajaccio welcome Bastia to Stade Michel-Moretti. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 3 December 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Ajaccio have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Ajaccio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ajaccio have posted 6W 2D 2L at Stade Michel-Moretti — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Ajaccio are significantly better at Stade Michel-Moretti than their overall form suggests.
Bastia — All Games: 1W 7D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bastia's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Ajaccio) versus 1.00 (Bastia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Ajaccio, 3 for Bastia and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2024, ended 0–1 with Bastia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Ajaccio in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Bastia in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajaccio 35% versus Bastia 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ajaccio 33% | Bastia 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajaccio 1.36 xG and Bastia 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajaccio attack 0.927 / defence 0.821 | Bastia attack 0.971 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.065. Data: 51 Ajaccio games / 51 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajaccio 49% | Draw 28% | Bastia 23%. Fair-value odds: Ajaccio 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Bastia 4.35. Ajaccio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ajaccio at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ajaccio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. This conflicts with form data: Ajaccio 50% | Bastia 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajaccio vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade Michel-Moretti • Kick-off: Tuesday 3 Dec 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajaccio 49% | Draw 28% | Bastia 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 42% | xG Ajaccio 1.36 / Bastia 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Ajaccio attack 0.927 / def 0.821 | Bastia attack 0.971 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: Ajaccio (49%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Ajaccio xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Bastia xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajaccio vs Bastia kick off?
Ajaccio vs Bastia kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 3 December 2024 at Stade Michel-Moretti.
What was the final score in Ajaccio vs Bastia?
Ajaccio 0 - 0 Bastia.
Where is Ajaccio vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade Michel-Moretti.
What competition is Ajaccio vs Bastia part of?
Ajaccio vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Ajaccio vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Ajaccio a 49% chance of winning, Bastia a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ajaccio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajaccio vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Ajaccio and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Ajaccio vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Bastia?
Record (4 meetings): Ajaccio 1W | Draws 0 | Bastia 3W.
What form are Ajaccio and Bastia in?
Ajaccio (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Bastia (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Ajaccio vs Bastia?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ajaccio's attack at 0.93x the league average against Bastia's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bastia's attack versus Ajaccio's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajaccio Win
49%
2.05
28%
3.59
23%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Ajaccio xG
Total xG
2.21
0.85
Bastia xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
4.26
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.35
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
21%
4.80
6%
16.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.7 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajaccio vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Ajaccio and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Ajaccio and 0.85 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajaccio vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ajaccio's recent record stands at 16W 12D 23L from 51 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Ajaccio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bastia, meanwhile, have gone 17W 17D 17L across 51 games — 1.33 PPG, with D-D-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ajaccio on 1.18 PPG, Bastia on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ajaccio have managed 14W 7D 4L from 25 games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Ajaccio are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Bastia's away record stands at 7W 7D 11L across 25 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajaccio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ajaccio are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.12 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajaccio
Blended
Bastia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajaccio and Bastia in coming into this match?
Ajaccio have gone 16W 12D 23L in their last 51 games (1.18 PPG), while Bastia have gone 17W 17D 17L in their last 51 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajaccio at home or Bastia away?
Ajaccio's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajaccio at home: 1.96 PPG; Bastia away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Ajaccio or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Bastia in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jan 2025, when Bastia won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ajaccio's record when hosting Bastia specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Ajaccio
1
Draws
4
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Bastia?
From 6 meetings on record, Ajaccio have won 1, Bastia have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ajaccio and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2025, when Bastia 4-0 Ajaccio.
Who has won more matches between Ajaccio and Bastia?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ajaccio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajaccio 44%, Bastia 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Ajaccio) and 40% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: Ajaccio keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Bastia in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajaccio home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajaccio play Bastia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Ajaccio's recent matches and 52% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ajaccio vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Ajaccio's recent games and 40% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ajaccio and Bastia tend to score early?
Ajaccio have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Bastia in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ajaccio's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Michel-Moretti, Regular Season - 10, as Ajaccio and Bastia drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajaccio 1.36 xG and Bastia 0.85 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ajaccio fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Bastia landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajaccio attack 0.93 / defence 0.82 against Bastia attack 0.97 / defence 1.03, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajaccio 49% | Draw 28% | Bastia 23%, with Ajaccio to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajaccio 33%, Bastia 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajaccio's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bastia's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ajaccio 1.18 PPG, Bastia 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ajaccio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward. Bastia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.