Ajaccio 3-1 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amiens at 40%, yet in-form Ajaccio provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ajaccio vs Amiens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ajaccio host Amiens at Stade François Coty in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 31 July 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Ajaccio have gone 0W 1D 0L from 1 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Ajaccio have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Amiens stand at 0W 0D 1L from 1 Ligue 2 matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Amiens have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ajaccio carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.00 vs 0.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 100% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajaccio 1.02 xG and Amiens 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajaccio attack 0.980 / defence 1.150 | Amiens attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.902 / away 1.365. Data: 1 Ajaccio games / 1 Amiens games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ajaccio 25% | Draw 35% | Amiens 40%. Fair-value odds: Ajaccio 4.00 | Draw 2.86 | Amiens 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Amiens at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ajaccio (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Amiens offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajaccio vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade François Coty • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jul 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajaccio 25% | Draw 35% | Amiens 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 51% | xG Ajaccio 1.02 / Amiens 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Ajaccio attack 0.980 / def 1.150 | Amiens attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.902 / away 1.365 • Poisson stance: Amiens (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Ajaccio xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Amiens xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajaccio vs Amiens kick off?
Ajaccio vs Amiens kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 31 July 2021 at Stade François Coty.
What was the final score in Ajaccio vs Amiens?
Ajaccio 3 - 1 Amiens.
Where is Ajaccio vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade François Coty.
What competition is Ajaccio vs Amiens part of?
Ajaccio vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Ajaccio vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Ajaccio a 25% chance of winning, Amiens a 40% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajaccio vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Ajaccio and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will Ajaccio vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Amiens?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ajaccio and Amiens in?
Ajaccio (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D. Amiens (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ajaccio's attack at 0.98x the league average against Amiens's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Amiens's attack versus Ajaccio's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
25%
4.07
35%
2.83
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Ajaccio xG
Total xG
2.35
1.33
Amiens xG
4.07
25%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
6%
15.43
15%
6.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 12.7 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajaccio vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Ajaccio and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Ajaccio and 1.33 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajaccio vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ajaccio's recent record stands at 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Ajaccio, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Amiens, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 1L across 1 games — 0.00 PPG, with L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Amiens, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ajaccio by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Amiens heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Ajaccio are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajaccio have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Amiens in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajaccio
Early Season
Amiens
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajaccio and Amiens in coming into this match?
Ajaccio have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Amiens have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ajaccio and Amiens runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ajaccio's record when hosting Amiens specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Ajaccio
2
Draws
1
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Amiens?
From 6 meetings on record, Ajaccio have won 3, Amiens have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ajaccio and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2025, when Ajaccio 2-1 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Ajaccio and Amiens?
Ajaccio have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajaccio home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajaccio play Amiens?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Ajaccio's games and 100% of Amiens's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ajaccio vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Ajaccio's matches and 100% of Amiens's.
Do Ajaccio and Amiens tend to score early?
Ajaccio have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Amiens in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ajaccio cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Amiens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajaccio beat Amiens 3-1 at Stade François Coty, Regular Season - 2, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajaccio 1.02 xG and Amiens 1.33 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Ajaccio beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajaccio attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Amiens attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ajaccio 25% | Draw 35% | Amiens 40%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a Ajaccio win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajaccio 100%, Amiens 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajaccio arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ajaccio scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Amiens shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.