Toulouse 1-1 Reims – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Toulouse at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Toulouse vs Reims fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 9 as Toulouse welcome Reims to Stadium de Toulouse. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 October 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Toulouse — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadium de Toulouse this season.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Reims have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reims away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Toulouse) versus 1.30 (Reims). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Toulouse, 1 for Reims and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2023, ended 0–3 with Reims winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Toulouse in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Reims in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 56% versus Reims 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 56% | Reims 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.60 xG and Reims 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 1.095 / defence 0.946 | Reims attack 1.185 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.200. Data: 46 Toulouse games / 46 Reims games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Toulouse 42% | Draw 27% | Reims 31%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Reims 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Toulouse are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Toulouse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Toulouse 50% | Reims 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Oct 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 42% | Draw 27% | Reims 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 61% | xG Toulouse 1.60 / Reims 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 1.095 / def 0.946 | Reims attack 1.185 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Reims xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Reims kick off?
Toulouse vs Reims kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 22 October 2023 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Reims?
Toulouse 1 - 1 Reims.
Where is Toulouse vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Reims part of?
Toulouse vs Reims is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 42% chance of winning, Reims a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Toulouse and Reims will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Reims?
Record (2 meetings): Toulouse 1W | Draws 0 | Reims 1W.
What form are Toulouse and Reims in?
Toulouse (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Reims (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Toulouse's attack at 1.09x the league average against Reims's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Reims's attack versus Toulouse's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
42%
2.38
27%
3.65
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Toulouse xG
Total xG
2.95
1.34
Reims xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
20%
4.96
Win to Nil
11%
9.14
6%
16.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.3 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.34 for Reims, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Reims?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, Toulouse have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 15W 13D 18L record — D-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Reims's form line: 16W 16D 14L from 46 games, 1.39 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-L. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Toulouse on 1.26 PPG, Reims on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Toulouse have posted 1.32 PPG from 22 outings (7W 8D 7L).
On the road, Reims have gone 6W 10D 6L from 22 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Toulouse are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.28 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Blended
Reims
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Reims in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 15W 13D 18L in their last 46 games (1.26 PPG), while Reims have gone 16W 16D 14L in their last 46 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Reims away?
Toulouse's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 1.32 PPG; Reims away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Toulouse or Reims been keeping clean sheets recently?
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Reims in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Toulouse and Reims runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Feb 2023, when Reims won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Toulouse's record when hosting Reims specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Toulouse
1
Draws
2
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Reims?
From 6 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 3, Reims have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Reims last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2025, when Reims 1-0 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Reims?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 59%, Reims 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Toulouse) and 46% (Reims).
On the defensive side: Reims in 32%; Toulouse have failed to score in 27% of games; Reims in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Reims?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Toulouse's recent matches and 50% of Reims's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Toulouse vs Reims usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Toulouse's recent games and 46% of Reims's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Toulouse and Reims tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Reims in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Toulouse and Reims share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse and Reims finished level at 1-1 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.60 xG and Reims 1.34 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 1.09 / defence 0.95 against Reims attack 1.19 / defence 1.00, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 42% | Draw 27% | Reims 31%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 56%, Reims 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Reims's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Toulouse 1.26 PPG, Reims 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.