Toulouse 0-1 Paris Saint Germain – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Paris Saint Germain at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Toulouse host Paris Saint Germain at Stadium de Toulouse in Ligue 1 (matchday 22). Kick-off is Saturday 15 February 2025 at 20:05 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Toulouse stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Toulouse have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Paris Saint Germain — last 10 games: 7W 3D 0L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Paris Saint Germain have posted 7W 3D 0L from their last 10 away outings — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Paris Saint Germain are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Toulouse's last 10 home games and Paris Saint Germain's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Toulouse, 3 for Paris Saint Germain and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 22 Nov 2024, ended Toulouse 0–3 Paris Saint Germain — a Paris Saint Germain win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Toulouse in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Paris Saint Germain in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 100%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Toulouse 56% and Paris Saint Germain 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 54% | Paris Saint Germain 67%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Toulouse surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Paris Saint Germain have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 100% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.03 xG and Paris Saint Germain 2.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.795 / defence 1.012 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.611 / defence 0.831. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.309. Toulouse's attack rating of 0.795 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.03. Paris Saint Germain have an above-average attack rating of 1.611, which lifts their away xG to 2.13. Data: built from Toulouse's last 55 games and Paris Saint Germain's last 55.
Result probabilities: Toulouse 15% | Draw 24% | Paris Saint Germain 61%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 6.49 | Draw 4.16 | Paris Saint Germain 1.65. The model has a clear lean to Paris Saint Germain (61%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Paris Saint Germain as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Toulouse's last 10 home games and Paris Saint Germain's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Toulouse 70% (last 10 home games) | Paris Saint Germain 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 22 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Saturday 15 February 2025 at 20:05 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 15% | Draw 24% | Paris Saint Germain 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Toulouse 1.03 / Paris Saint Germain 2.13 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 0.795 / def 1.012 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.611 / def 0.831 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.309 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
2.13
Paris Saint Germain xG
59%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain FAQs
What time does Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain kick off?
Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain kicked off at 20:05 UK time on Saturday 15 February 2025 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain?
Toulouse 0 - 1 Paris Saint Germain.
Where is Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain part of?
Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 22) (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 15% chance of winning, Paris Saint Germain a 61% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Toulouse and Paris Saint Germain will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Toulouse's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Paris Saint Germain's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Paris Saint Germain's attack versus Toulouse's defence, projects 2.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Toulouse's last 55 games and Paris Saint Germain's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
15%
6.49
24%
4.16
61%
1.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.6%
Away win
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Toulouse xG
Total xG
3.17
2.13
Paris Saint Germain xG
6.49
15%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
1.65
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
12%
8.45
36%
2.82
Win to Nil
2%
54.79
21%
4.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Paris Saint Germain expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Toulouse and 2.13 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Toulouse come into this having played 55 games, going 18W 16D 21L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-D.
On the other side, Paris Saint Germain sit at 2.35 PPG from 55 outings (38W 15D 2L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five.
Paris Saint Germain carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.08 PPG clear of Toulouse — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Toulouse's home form reads 7W 9D 11L across their last 27 home games, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Paris Saint Germain have taken 2.48 points per game from their last 27 away games (20W 7D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Toulouse are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Paris Saint Germain are on 2.53 scored and 0.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Paris Saint Germain in 69%.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Blended
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
Toulouse (Home) vs Paris Saint Germain (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Toulouse
Blended
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
❓ Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain Form FAQs
What form are Toulouse and Paris Saint Germain in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 18W 16D 21L in their last 55 games (1.27 PPG), while Paris Saint Germain have gone 38W 15D 2L in their last 55 (2.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Paris Saint Germain away?
Paris Saint Germain's away record (2.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 1.11 PPG; Paris Saint Germain away: 2.48 PPG.
Have Toulouse or Paris Saint Germain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Paris Saint Germain in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 3 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Paris Saint Germain have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 31 Aug 2022, when Paris Saint Germain won Toulouse 0-3 Paris Saint Germain.
Toulouse's record when hosting Paris Saint Germain specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Toulouse
1
Draws
6
Paris Saint Germain
Recent Meetings
❓ Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Paris Saint Germain?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Toulouse have won 1, Paris Saint Germain have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Paris Saint Germain last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 April 2026: Paris Saint Germain 3-1 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Toulouse see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 67%, Paris Saint Germain 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Toulouse) and 56% (Paris Saint Germain). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Paris Saint Germain in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Paris Saint Germain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Toulouse and Paris Saint Germain matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Toulouse's games and 63% of Paris Saint Germain's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Toulouse and Paris Saint Germain matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Toulouse's matches and 56% of Paris Saint Germain's.
Do Toulouse and Paris Saint Germain matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Toulouse's recent matches and 74% of Paris Saint Germain's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Paris Saint Germain edge out Toulouse 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris Saint Germain beat Toulouse 0-1 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.03 xG and Paris Saint Germain 2.13 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Toulouse fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Paris Saint Germain landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.80 / defence 1.01 against Paris Saint Germain attack 1.61 / defence 0.83, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 15% | Draw 24% | Paris Saint Germain 61%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 54%, Paris Saint Germain 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.27. Form held, and they took the win. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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