Toulouse 0-0 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Toulouse at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Toulouse vs Estac Troyes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadium Municipal plays host to Toulouse versus Estac Troyes in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Sunday 25 October 2026 at 16:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Toulouse have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Toulouse have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Toulouse's home record at Stadium Municipal: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Estac Troyes's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Estac Troyes have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Estac Troyes away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Toulouse. A 0.60 PPG lead over Estac Troyes (1.60 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Toulouse lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2023, ended 4–1 with Toulouse winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Toulouse — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Estac Troyes — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 50% versus Estac Troyes 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 58% | Estac Troyes 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.73 xG and Estac Troyes 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.944 / defence 1.095 | Estac Troyes attack 0.701 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.405. Data: 40 Toulouse games / 7 Estac Troyes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Toulouse 53% | Draw 24% | Estac Troyes 24%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Estac Troyes 4.17. Toulouse hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Toulouse at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Toulouse if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Toulouse 40% | Estac Troyes 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadium Municipal • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Oct 2026, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 53% | Draw 24% | Estac Troyes 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Toulouse 1.73 / Estac Troyes 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 0.944 / def 1.095 | Estac Troyes attack 0.701 / def 1.166 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.405 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Estac Troyes xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Toulouse vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 25 October 2026 at Stadium Municipal.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Estac Troyes?
Toulouse 0 - 0 Estac Troyes.
Where is Toulouse vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stadium Municipal.
What competition is Toulouse vs Estac Troyes part of?
Toulouse vs Estac Troyes is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 53% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Toulouse and Estac Troyes will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Estac Troyes?
Record (2 meetings): Toulouse 2W | Draws 0 | Estac Troyes 0W.
What form are Toulouse and Estac Troyes in?
Toulouse (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Estac Troyes (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Toulouse's attack rating (0.94) and Estac Troyes's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Estac Troyes's attack (0.70x) against Toulouse's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 40/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
53%
1.90
24%
4.21
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Toulouse xG
Total xG
2.81
1.08
Estac Troyes xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
18%
5.65
Win to Nil
18%
5.58
4%
23.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.2 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.08 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 40 outings, Toulouse have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 14W 11D 15L record — L-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Toulouse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Estac Troyes's form line: 20W 8D 12L from 40 games, 1.70 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Estac Troyes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Toulouse against 1.70 for Estac Troyes. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Toulouse have posted 1.35 PPG from 20 outings (7W 6D 7L).
On the road, Estac Troyes have gone 7W 6D 7L from 20 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Toulouse are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.58 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Early Season
Estac Troyes
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 14W 11D 15L in their last 40 games (1.32 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 20W 8D 12L in their last 40 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Estac Troyes away?
Toulouse's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 1.35 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Toulouse or Estac Troyes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Estac Troyes in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 25 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Toulouse won 0-3 on 14 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Toulouse have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Estac Troyes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Toulouse
1
Draws
0
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Estac Troyes?
From 3 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 2, Estac Troyes have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Estac Troyes last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2026, when Toulouse 0-0 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Estac Troyes?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Toulouse see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Estac Troyes see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 40%, Estac Troyes 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Toulouse) and 45% (Estac Troyes).
On the defensive side: Toulouse have failed to score in 40% of games; Estac Troyes in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Estac Troyes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Toulouse's recent matches and 45% of Estac Troyes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Toulouse vs Estac Troyes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Toulouse's recent games and 45% of Estac Troyes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Toulouse's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse and Estac Troyes finished level at 0-0 at Stadium Municipal, Regular Season - 8, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.73 xG and Estac Troyes 1.08 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Toulouse fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Estac Troyes landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.94 / defence 1.09 against Estac Troyes attack 0.70 / defence 1.17, drawn from 40/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 53% | Draw 24% | Estac Troyes 24%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 58%, Estac Troyes 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Toulouse 1.32 PPG, Estac Troyes 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.