Strasbourg 0-0 Nice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nice at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Strasbourg vs Nice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Nice travel to Stade de la Meinau to take on Strasbourg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 February 2022, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Strasbourg have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Strasbourg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade de la Meinau, Strasbourg have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nice stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Nice have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.20 PPG (Strasbourg) versus 1.90 (Nice). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Strasbourg, 0 for Nice and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2021, ended 3–0 with Strasbourg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Strasbourg in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Nice in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Strasbourg 56% versus Nice 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Strasbourg 52% | Nice 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Strasbourg 1.23 xG and Nice 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Strasbourg attack 1.236 / defence 1.101 | Nice attack 1.003 / defence 0.845. League average goals — home 1.176 / away 1.175. Data: 25 Strasbourg games / 25 Nice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Strasbourg 35% | Draw 27% | Nice 38%. Fair-value odds: Strasbourg 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Nice 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nice at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Strasbourg 60% | Nice 30%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Strasbourg vs Nice | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stade de la Meinau • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Strasbourg 35% | Draw 27% | Nice 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Strasbourg 1.23 / Nice 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Strasbourg attack 1.236 / def 1.101 | Nice attack 1.003 / def 0.845 | league avg home 1.176 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Nice (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Strasbourg xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Nice xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Strasbourg vs Nice kick off?
Strasbourg vs Nice kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Stade de la Meinau.
What was the final score in Strasbourg vs Nice?
Strasbourg 0 - 0 Nice.
Where is Strasbourg vs Nice being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Meinau.
What competition is Strasbourg vs Nice part of?
Strasbourg vs Nice is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Strasbourg vs Nice?
Our statistical model gives Strasbourg a 35% chance of winning, Nice a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Strasbourg vs Nice?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Strasbourg and Nice will score (BTTS).
Will Strasbourg vs Nice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Strasbourg and Nice?
Record (1 meetings): Strasbourg 1W | Draws 0 | Nice 0W.
What form are Strasbourg and Nice in?
Strasbourg (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Nice (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Strasbourg's attack rating (1.24) and Nice's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nice's attack versus Strasbourg's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
35%
2.86
27%
3.73
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Strasbourg xG
Total xG
2.52
1.30
Nice xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
10%
10.47
11%
8.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.4 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.8 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Strasbourg vs Nice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Strasbourg and Nice expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Strasbourg and 1.30 for Nice, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Strasbourg vs Nice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Strasbourg's recent record stands at 12W 6D 7L from 25 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Strasbourg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nice, meanwhile, have gone 14W 4D 7L across 25 games — 1.84 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Nice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Strasbourg on 1.68 PPG, Nice on 1.84. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Strasbourg have managed 7W 2D 3L from 12 games — 1.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nice's away record stands at 8W 1D 3L across 12 trips, a 2.08 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Strasbourg are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Nice are on 1.48 scored and 0.84 conceded. Strasbourg's scoring rate against Nice's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Nice in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Strasbourg
Blended
Nice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Strasbourg and Nice in coming into this match?
Strasbourg have gone 12W 6D 7L in their last 25 games (1.68 PPG), while Nice have gone 14W 4D 7L in their last 25 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Strasbourg at home or Nice away?
Nice's away record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Strasbourg at home: 1.92 PPG; Nice away: 2.08 PPG.
Have Strasbourg or Nice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Strasbourg have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Nice in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Strasbourg and Nice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Dec 2021, when Strasbourg won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Strasbourg's record when hosting Nice specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Strasbourg
4
Draws
3
Nice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Strasbourg and Nice?
From 10 meetings on record, Strasbourg have won 3, Nice have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Strasbourg and Nice last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Strasbourg 3-1 Nice.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Strasbourg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Strasbourg 58%, Nice 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Strasbourg) and 50% (Nice).
On the defensive side: Nice in 50%; Nice in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Strasbourg home games / Nice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Strasbourg play Nice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Strasbourg's recent matches and 25% of Nice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Strasbourg vs Nice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Strasbourg's recent games and 50% of Nice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Strasbourg and Nice tend to score early?
Strasbourg have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Nice in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Strasbourg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de la Meinau, Regular Season - 26, as Strasbourg and Nice drew 0-0 in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Strasbourg 1.23 xG and Nice 1.30 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Strasbourg fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Nice landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Strasbourg attack 1.24 / defence 1.10 against Nice attack 1.00 / defence 0.84, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Strasbourg 35% | Draw 27% | Nice 38%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Strasbourg 52%, Nice 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Strasbourg's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Nice's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Strasbourg 1.68 PPG, Nice 1.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Strasbourg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Nice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.