Stade Brestois 29 0-0 Reims – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stade Brestois 29 at 60% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stade Brestois 29 vs Reims encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stade Brestois 29 host Reims at Stade Francis-Le Blé in Ligue 1 (matchday 26). Kick-off is Sunday 16 March 2025 at 16:15 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Stade Brestois 29 have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W D D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Stade Brestois 29's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Reims — last 10 games: 0W 2D 8L — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.
Reims's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 exceeds their overall 0.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Stade Brestois 29 carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Stade Brestois 29 have won 2, Reims 0, with 5 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Oct 2024, ended Stade Brestois 29 2–1 Reims — a Stade Brestois 29 win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Stade Brestois 29 in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Reims in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stade Brestois 29 48% versus Reims 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stade Brestois 29 48% | Reims 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stade Brestois 29 1.95 xG and Reims 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.218 / defence 1.011 | Reims attack 0.698 / defence 1.080. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.384. Reims's attack rating of 0.698 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.98. Data: built from Stade Brestois 29's last 59 games and Reims's last 59.
Result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 60% | Draw 22% | Reims 18%. Fair-value odds: Stade Brestois 29 1.67 | Draw 4.49 | Reims 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Stade Brestois 29 (60%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stade Brestois 29 as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Stade Brestois 29's last 10 home games and Reims's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Stade Brestois 29 60% (last 10 home games) | Reims 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stade Brestois 29 vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 26 | Venue: Stade Francis-Le Blé • Kick-off: Sunday 16 March 2025 at 16:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 60% | Draw 22% | Reims 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Stade Brestois 29 1.95 / Reims 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.218 / def 1.011 | Reims attack 0.698 / def 1.080 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.384 • Poisson stance: Stade Brestois 29 (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Reims xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stade Brestois 29 vs Reims FAQs
What time does Stade Brestois 29 vs Reims kick off?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Reims kicked off at 16:15 UK time on Sunday 16 March 2025 at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What was the final score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Reims?
Stade Brestois 29 0 - 0 Reims.
Where is Stade Brestois 29 vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What competition is Stade Brestois 29 vs Reims part of?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Reims is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 26) (France).
Who is favourite to win Stade Brestois 29 vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives Stade Brestois 29 a 60% chance of winning, Reims a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Stade Brestois 29 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Stade Brestois 29 and Reims will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Stade Brestois 29 vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Stade Brestois 29's attack rating (1.22) and Reims's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Reims's attack versus Stade Brestois 29's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Stade Brestois 29's last 59 games and Reims's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stade Brestois 29 Win
60%
1.67
22%
4.49
18%
5.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Total xG
2.93
0.98
Reims xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
5.56
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
14%
7.05
Win to Nil
22%
4.45
3%
39.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.4 | 10.2 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stade Brestois 29 vs Reims Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stade Brestois 29 vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Stade Brestois 29 and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Stade Brestois 29 and 0.98 for Reims, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Stade Brestois 29 vs Reims?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stade Brestois 29's recent record stands at 28W 13D 18L from 59 games, a 1.64 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-W in the last five.
Reims, meanwhile, have gone 18W 15D 26L across 59 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Stade Brestois 29 by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Reims heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Stade Brestois 29 have managed 15W 9D 5L from their last 29 home games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Reims's away record stands at 8W 8D 13L across their last 29 away games, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stade Brestois 29 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stade Brestois 29 are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.15 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Reims in 61%.
Defensively: Stade Brestois 29 have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
Reims
Blended
Stade Brestois 29 (Home) vs Reims (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
Reims
Blended
❓ Stade Brestois 29 vs Reims Form FAQs
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Reims in coming into this match?
Stade Brestois 29 have gone 28W 13D 18L in their last 59 games (1.64 PPG), while Reims have gone 18W 15D 26L in their last 59 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stade Brestois 29 at home or Reims away?
Stade Brestois 29's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stade Brestois 29 at home: 1.86 PPG; Reims away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Stade Brestois 29 or Reims been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stade Brestois 29 have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Reims in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from October 2021. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent in our data was on 16 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Stade Brestois 29's record when hosting Reims specifically: 0W 4D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Stade Brestois 29
6
Draws
0
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Stade Brestois 29 vs Reims H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Reims?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Stade Brestois 29 have won 2, Reims have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Stade Brestois 29 and Reims last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 March 2025: Stade Brestois 29 0-0 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Stade Brestois 29 and Reims?
Stade Brestois 29 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stade Brestois 29 48%, Reims 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Stade Brestois 29) and 66% (Reims).
On the defensive side: Stade Brestois 29 keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stade Brestois 29 home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stade Brestois 29 vs Reims Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stade Brestois 29 and Reims matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Stade Brestois 29's games and 69% of Reims's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Stade Brestois 29 and Reims matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Stade Brestois 29's recent games and 66% of Reims's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stade Brestois 29 and Reims matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Stade Brestois 29's recent matches and 69% of Reims's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Stade Brestois 29's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Regular Season - 26, as Stade Brestois 29 and Reims drew 0-0 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stade Brestois 29 1.95 xG and Reims 0.98 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stade Brestois 29 fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Reims landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.22 / defence 1.01 against Reims attack 0.70 / defence 1.08, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stade Brestois 29 60% | Draw 22% | Reims 18%, with Stade Brestois 29 to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stade Brestois 29 48%, Reims 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Reims's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Stade Brestois 29 arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Reims (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.66 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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