Stade Brestois 29 1-2 Lorient – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lorient at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stade Brestois 29 vs Lorient encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 10 as Stade Brestois 29 welcome Lorient to Stade Francis-Le Blé. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Stade Brestois 29 — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stade Brestois 29, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stade Brestois 29 have posted 2W 3D 5L at Stade Francis-Le Blé — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lorient stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Lorient, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lorient's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Lorient — 1.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Stade Brestois 29, 1 for Lorient and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2022, ended 0–1 with Lorient winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Stade Brestois 29 trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Lorient trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stade Brestois 29 64% versus Lorient 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stade Brestois 29 47% | Lorient 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stade Brestois 29 1.18 xG and Lorient 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.730 / defence 1.286 | Lorient attack 1.064 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.463. Stade Brestois 29's attack strength of 0.730 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 Stade Brestois 29 games / 47 Lorient games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 21% | Draw 23% | Lorient 56%. Fair-value odds: Stade Brestois 29 4.76 | Draw 4.35 | Lorient 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Lorient (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.18 / 2.00) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lorient as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.18 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stade Brestois 29 60% | Lorient 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stade Brestois 29 vs Lorient | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade Francis-Le Blé • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 21% | Draw 23% | Lorient 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 61% | xG Stade Brestois 29 1.18 / Lorient 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.730 / def 1.286 | Lorient attack 1.064 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.448 / away 1.463 • Poisson stance: Lorient (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Expected Goals
2.00
Lorient xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stade Brestois 29 vs Lorient kick off?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Lorient kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What was the final score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Lorient?
Stade Brestois 29 1 - 2 Lorient.
Where is Stade Brestois 29 vs Lorient being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What competition is Stade Brestois 29 vs Lorient part of?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Lorient is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Stade Brestois 29 vs Lorient?
Our statistical model gives Stade Brestois 29 a 21% chance of winning, Lorient a 56% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Lorient the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Lorient?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Stade Brestois 29 and Lorient will score (BTTS).
Will Stade Brestois 29 vs Lorient have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Lorient?
Record (2 meetings): Stade Brestois 29 1W | Draws 0 | Lorient 1W.
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Lorient in?
Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Lorient (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Stade Brestois 29's attack rating (0.73) and Lorient's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lorient's attack versus Stade Brestois 29's defence, projects 2.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lorient Win
21%
4.69
23%
4.33
56%
1.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Total xG
3.18
2.00
Lorient xG
4.69
21%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
1.80
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
14%
7.40
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
3%
34.71
17%
5.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stade Brestois 29 vs Lorient?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Stade Brestois 29 and Lorient expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Stade Brestois 29 and 2.00 for Lorient, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Stade Brestois 29 vs Lorient?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stade Brestois 29's recent record stands at 14W 12D 21L from 47 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Stade Brestois 29 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lorient, meanwhile, have gone 15W 13D 19L across 47 games — 1.23 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Lorient is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stade Brestois 29 on 1.15 PPG, Lorient on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Stade Brestois 29 have managed 7W 6D 10L from 23 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lorient's away record stands at 5W 6D 12L across 23 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Stade Brestois 29 are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Lorient are on 1.15 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stade Brestois 29 have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
Lorient
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Lorient in coming into this match?
Stade Brestois 29 have gone 14W 12D 21L in their last 47 games (1.15 PPG), while Lorient have gone 15W 13D 19L in their last 47 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stade Brestois 29 at home or Lorient away?
Stade Brestois 29's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stade Brestois 29 at home: 1.17 PPG; Lorient away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Dec 2023, when Stade Brestois 29 won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stade Brestois 29's record when hosting Lorient specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Stade Brestois 29
1
Draws
3
Lorient
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Lorient?
From 8 meetings on record, Stade Brestois 29 have won 4, Lorient have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stade Brestois 29 and Lorient last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Stade Brestois 29 2-0 Lorient.
Who has won more matches between Stade Brestois 29 and Lorient?
Stade Brestois 29 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Lorient are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stade Brestois 29 52%, Lorient 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Stade Brestois 29) and 56% (Lorient).
On the defensive side: Lorient in 30%; Stade Brestois 29 have failed to score in 26% of games; Lorient in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stade Brestois 29 home games / Lorient away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stade Brestois 29 play Lorient?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Stade Brestois 29's recent matches and 52% of Lorient's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stade Brestois 29 vs Lorient usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Stade Brestois 29's recent games and 56% of Lorient's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stade Brestois 29 and Lorient tend to score early?
Stade Brestois 29 have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Lorient in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lorient edge out Stade Brestois 29 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lorient beat Stade Brestois 29 1-2 at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stade Brestois 29 1.18 xG and Lorient 2.00 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.73 / defence 1.29 against Lorient attack 1.06 / defence 1.12, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stade Brestois 29 21% | Draw 23% | Lorient 56%, with Lorient to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stade Brestois 29 47%, Lorient 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Lorient's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stade Brestois 29 1.15 PPG, Lorient 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lorient win broke the near-deadlock. Lorient (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.