Rennes 0-2 Reims – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as Rennes take on Reims.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Reims travel to Roazhon Park to take on Rennes. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 September 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Rennes have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 outings — a 1.25 PPG return. Last five: D D W L. They are averaging 0.75 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Rennes have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Reims — All Games: 0W 3D 1L from 4 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 0.75 PPG. Last five: D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Reims have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rennes are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 1 data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.25 vs 0.75). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Rennes in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games.
Reims in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rennes 50% versus Reims 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Rennes 0% | Reims 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rennes 1.00 xG and Reims 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rennes attack 0.886 / defence 0.974 | Reims attack 0.694 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.216 / away 1.374. Data: 4 Rennes games / 4 Reims games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rennes 32% | Draw 40% | Reims 28%. Fair-value odds: Rennes 3.12 | Draw 2.50 | Reims 3.57. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.93 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Rennes 50% | Reims 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rennes vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Roazhon Park • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rennes 32% | Draw 40% | Reims 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 42% | xG Rennes 1.00 / Reims 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Rennes attack 0.886 / def 0.974 | Reims attack 0.694 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.216 / away 1.374 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Rennes xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Reims xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rennes vs Reims kick off?
Rennes vs Reims kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at Roazhon Park.
What was the final score in Rennes vs Reims?
Rennes 0 - 2 Reims.
Where is Rennes vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Roazhon Park.
What competition is Rennes vs Reims part of?
Rennes vs Reims is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rennes vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives Rennes a 32% chance of winning, Reims a 28% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Rennes vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Rennes and Reims will score (BTTS).
Will Rennes vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Reims?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rennes and Reims in?
Rennes (all comps): 1W-2D-1L in 4 | 1.25 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-L. Reims (all comps): 0W-3D-1L in 4 | 0.75 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Rennes's attack rating (0.89) and Reims's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Reims's attack versus Rennes's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.10
40%
2.53
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Rennes xG
Total xG
1.93
0.93
Reims xG
3.10
32%
Home win
2.53
40%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
13%
7.84
10%
9.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 13.4 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rennes vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Rennes and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Rennes and 0.93 for Reims, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Rennes vs Reims?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rennes's recent record stands at 1W 2D 1L from 4 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with D-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Rennes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Reims, meanwhile, have gone 0W 3D 1L across 4 games — 0.75 PPG, with D-D-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Reims, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rennes by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Reims heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Rennes are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 4 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rennes
Early Season
Reims
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rennes and Reims in coming into this match?
Rennes have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 games (1.25 PPG), while Reims have gone 0W 3D 1L in their last 4 (0.75 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2023, when Rennes won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rennes's record when hosting Reims specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Rennes
0
Draws
4
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Reims?
From 8 meetings on record, Rennes have won 4, Reims have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rennes and Reims last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2025, when Rennes 1-0 Reims.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rennes tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rennes 50%, Reims 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Rennes and 25% for Reims.
On the defensive side: Reims in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rennes home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rennes play Reims?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Rennes's recent matches and 50% of Reims's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rennes vs Reims usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Rennes's recent games and 25% of Reims's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rennes and Reims tend to score early?
Rennes have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Reims in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Reims cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Rennes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims beat Rennes 0-2 at Roazhon Park, Regular Season - 5, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rennes 1.00 xG and Reims 0.93 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Rennes fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Reims outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rennes attack 0.89 / defence 0.97 against Reims attack 0.69 / defence 0.93, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rennes 32% | Draw 40% | Reims 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. The actual Reims win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 12% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rennes 0%, Reims 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rennes's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Reims's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Rennes arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.75. Form was overturned, with Reims winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Rennes shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Reims scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.