Reims 3-0 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reims at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reims vs Toulouse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Reims host Toulouse at Stade Auguste-Delaune II in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 February 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Reims have gone 4W 6D 0L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reims's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Stade Auguste-Delaune II this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Toulouse — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Toulouse away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Reims at 1.80 PPG versus Toulouse's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Reims have won 0, Toulouse 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2022, ended 0–1 with Toulouse winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Reims trading profile (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Toulouse trading profile (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 53% versus Toulouse 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 40% | Toulouse 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 2.21 xG and Toulouse 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 1.203 / defence 0.844 | Toulouse attack 1.110 / defence 1.232. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.253. Toulouse bring a strong defensive rating of 1.232 — this is suppressing Reims's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 62 Reims games / 24 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 59% | Draw 23% | Toulouse 18%. Fair-value odds: Reims 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Toulouse 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Reims (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.21 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Reims as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.38 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Reims 50% | Toulouse 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune II • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Feb 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 59% | Draw 23% | Toulouse 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 63% | xG Reims 2.21 / Toulouse 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 1.203 / def 0.844 | Toulouse attack 1.110 / def 1.232 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Reims (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Toulouse xG
63%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Toulouse kick off?
Reims vs Toulouse kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 26 February 2023 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What was the final score in Reims vs Toulouse?
Reims 3 - 0 Toulouse.
Where is Reims vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What competition is Reims vs Toulouse part of?
Reims vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 59% chance of winning, Toulouse a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Reims and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Toulouse?
Record (1 meetings): Reims 0W | Draws 0 | Toulouse 1W.
What form are Reims and Toulouse in?
Reims (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Toulouse (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Reims's attack at 1.20x the league average against Toulouse's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 2.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Toulouse's attack versus Reims's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
59%
1.68
23%
4.44
18%
5.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Reims xG
Total xG
3.38
1.17
Toulouse xG
1.68
59%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
5.54
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
11%
9.07
Win to Nil
18%
5.44
2%
50.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Reims and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Reims and 1.17 for Toulouse, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Toulouse?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 62 outings, Reims have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 18W 26D 18L record — D-W-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Toulouse's form line: 32W 15D 15L from 62 games, 1.79 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-L. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Toulouse are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Reims.
Venue Form
On home soil, Reims have posted 1.33 PPG from 30 outings (10W 10D 10L).
On the road, Toulouse have gone 12W 7D 11L from 30 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Reims are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.98 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Blended
Toulouse
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 18W 26D 18L in their last 62 games (1.29 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 32W 15D 15L in their last 62 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Toulouse away?
Toulouse's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.33 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Reims or Toulouse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Toulouse in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Feb 2023, when Reims won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Reims's record when hosting Toulouse specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Reims
1
Draws
3
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Toulouse?
From 6 meetings on record, Reims have won 2, Toulouse have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2025, when Reims 1-0 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Toulouse?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Reims see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 53%, Toulouse 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Reims) and 60% (Toulouse). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Reims have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Toulouse?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Reims's games and 57% of Toulouse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Reims vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Reims's matches and 60% of Toulouse's.
Do Reims and Toulouse tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Reims run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Toulouse.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims beat Toulouse 3-0 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 2.21 xG and Toulouse 1.17 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Toulouse landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 1.20 / defence 0.84 against Toulouse attack 1.11 / defence 1.23, drawn from 62/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 59% | Draw 23% | Toulouse 18%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 40%, Toulouse 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Toulouse's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Toulouse arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.29. Form was overturned, with Reims winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Reims (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.