Reims 3-3 Montpellier – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Montpellier at 45%, yet in-form Reims provide a compelling counter-argument — this Reims vs Montpellier fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Reims host Montpellier at Stade Auguste-Delaune II in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 15 August 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Reims — All Games: 0W 1D 0L from 1 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Reims have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Montpellier have recorded 0W 0D 1L from 1 outings — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Montpellier have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Reims are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 1 data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.03 xG and Montpellier 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.975 / defence 1.150 | Montpellier attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.922 / away 1.575. Data: 1 Reims games / 1 Montpellier games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Reims 22% | Draw 33% | Montpellier 45%. Fair-value odds: Reims 4.55 | Draw 3.03 | Montpellier 2.22. Montpellier hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Montpellier at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Reims (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Montpellier offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Montpellier | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune II • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Aug 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 22% | Draw 33% | Montpellier 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Reims 1.03 / Montpellier 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.975 / def 1.150 | Montpellier attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.922 / away 1.575 • Poisson stance: Montpellier (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Montpellier xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Montpellier kick off?
Reims vs Montpellier kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 15 August 2021 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What was the final score in Reims vs Montpellier?
Reims 3 - 3 Montpellier.
Where is Reims vs Montpellier being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What competition is Reims vs Montpellier part of?
Reims vs Montpellier is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Montpellier?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 22% chance of winning, Montpellier a 45% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Montpellier the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Montpellier?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Reims and Montpellier will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Montpellier have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Montpellier?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Reims and Montpellier in?
Reims (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 D. Montpellier (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Reims's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Montpellier's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Montpellier's attack versus Reims's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Montpellier Win
22%
4.59
33%
3.05
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Reims xG
Total xG
2.57
1.54
Montpellier xG
4.59
22%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
21%
4.66
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
5%
21.40
16%
6.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 11.8 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Montpellier?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Reims and Montpellier expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Reims and 1.54 for Montpellier, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Montpellier?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 1 outings, Reims have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 0W 1D 0L record — D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Reims, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Montpellier's form line: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L. It's still early in the season for Montpellier, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Reims are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Montpellier.
The Goals Picture
Reims are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Montpellier are on 2.00 scored and 3.00 conceded. Montpellier's attacking output running into Reims's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Reims have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Montpellier in 100%.
Defensively: Reims have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Early Season
Montpellier
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Montpellier in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Montpellier have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
Have Reims or Montpellier been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Montpellier in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Reims and Montpellier runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Reims's record when hosting Montpellier specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Reims
5
Draws
2
Montpellier
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Montpellier?
From 10 meetings on record, Reims have won 3, Montpellier have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Montpellier last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Montpellier 0-0 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Montpellier?
Reims have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Montpellier away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Montpellier?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Reims's recent matches and 100% of Montpellier's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reims vs Montpellier usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Reims's recent games and 100% of Montpellier's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Montpellier tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Montpellier in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Reims and Montpellier share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims and Montpellier finished level at 3-3 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II, Regular Season - 2, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.03 xG and Montpellier 1.54 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Reims beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Montpellier outscored their 1.54 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Montpellier attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Reims 22% | Draw 33% | Montpellier 45%, with Montpellier to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 0%, Montpellier 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Reims arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Reims scored 3 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Montpellier scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.