Paris Saint Germain 5-2 Monaco – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Paris Saint Germain at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Paris Saint Germain and Monaco meet at Parc des Princes in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Friday 24 November 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Paris Saint Germain's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Paris Saint Germain, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Parc des Princes, Paris Saint Germain have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parc des Princes. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Parc des Princes this season.
Monaco have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Monaco, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Monaco have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Paris Saint Germain. A 0.70 PPG lead over Monaco (2.50 vs 1.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Paris Saint Germain lead 1W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2023, ended 1–3 with Monaco winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Paris Saint Germain half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Monaco half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris Saint Germain 56% versus Monaco 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Paris Saint Germain 70% | Monaco 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris Saint Germain 2.21 xG and Monaco 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.487 / defence 0.891 | Monaco attack 1.231 / defence 1.101. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.012. Paris Saint Germain carry an above-average attack strength of 1.487 — their λ of 2.21 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Monaco have an above-average attack strength of 1.231 — the away xG of 1.11 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 50 Paris Saint Germain games / 50 Monaco games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 61% | Draw 23% | Monaco 16%. Fair-value odds: Paris Saint Germain 1.64 | Draw 4.35 | Monaco 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Paris Saint Germain (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.32 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.21 / 1.11) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris Saint Germain at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.32 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Paris Saint Germain 50% | Monaco 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Parc des Princes • Kick-off: Friday 24 Nov 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 61% | Draw 23% | Monaco 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 61% | xG Paris Saint Germain 2.21 / Monaco 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.487 / def 0.891 | Monaco attack 1.231 / def 1.101 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.012 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Paris Saint Germain xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Monaco xG
61%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco kick off?
Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 24 November 2023 at Parc des Princes.
What was the final score in Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco?
Paris Saint Germain 5 - 2 Monaco.
Where is Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Princes.
What competition is Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco part of?
Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco?
Our statistical model gives Paris Saint Germain a 61% chance of winning, Monaco a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Paris Saint Germain and Monaco will score (BTTS).
Will Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Monaco?
Record (4 meetings): Paris Saint Germain 1W | Draws 1 | Monaco 2W.
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Monaco in?
Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Monaco (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Paris Saint Germain's attacking strength (1.49x league average) is weighed against Monaco's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.21. Flip it around — Monaco's attack (1.23x) against Paris Saint Germain's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
61%
1.64
23%
4.42
16%
6.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Paris Saint Germain xG
Total xG
3.32
1.11
Monaco xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
6.07
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
11%
9.16
Win to Nil
20%
4.98
2%
55.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Paris Saint Germain and Monaco expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain and 1.11 for Monaco, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Paris Saint Germain's recent record stands at 35W 7D 8L from 50 games, a 2.24 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Paris Saint Germain is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Monaco, meanwhile, have gone 26W 11D 13L across 50 games — 1.78 PPG, with W-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Monaco is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Paris Saint Germain by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Monaco heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Paris Saint Germain have managed 17W 3D 5L from 25 games — 2.16 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Monaco's away record stands at 12W 8D 5L across 25 trips, a 1.76 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Paris Saint Germain are averaging 2.36 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Monaco are on 1.90 scored and 1.44 conceded. Monaco's attacking output running into Paris Saint Germain's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Monaco in 60%.
Defensively: Paris Saint Germain have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
Monaco
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Monaco in coming into this match?
Paris Saint Germain have gone 35W 7D 8L in their last 50 games (2.24 PPG), while Monaco have gone 26W 11D 13L in their last 50 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris Saint Germain at home or Monaco away?
Paris Saint Germain's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris Saint Germain at home: 2.16 PPG; Monaco away: 1.76 PPG.
Have Paris Saint Germain or Monaco been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris Saint Germain have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Monaco in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Monaco have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Monaco won 3-0 on 20 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Paris Saint Germain have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Monaco — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Paris Saint Germain
2
Draws
4
Monaco
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Monaco?
From 10 meetings on record, Paris Saint Germain have won 4, Monaco have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Paris Saint Germain and Monaco last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Paris Saint Germain 1-3 Monaco.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris Saint Germain 56%, Monaco 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Paris Saint Germain and 60% for Monaco. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Paris Saint Germain keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris Saint Germain home games / Monaco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris Saint Germain play Monaco?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Paris Saint Germain's games and 60% of Monaco's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Paris Saint Germain's matches and 60% of Monaco's.
Do Paris Saint Germain and Monaco tend to score early?
Paris Saint Germain have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Monaco in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Paris Saint Germain run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Monaco.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris Saint Germain beat Monaco 5-2 at Parc des Princes, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris Saint Germain 2.21 xG and Monaco 1.11 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Paris Saint Germain beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Monaco outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris Saint Germain attack 1.49 / defence 0.89 against Monaco attack 1.23 / defence 1.10, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris Saint Germain 61% | Draw 23% | Monaco 16%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris Saint Germain 70%, Monaco 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Monaco's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 1.78. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.40 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Monaco (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.