Nice 2-1 Nantes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nantes at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nice vs Nantes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Nantes travel to Allianz Riviera to take on Nice. The game is scheduled for Friday 14 January 2022, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Nice have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nice at Allianz Riviera this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Nantes — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Nantes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Nantes have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Nice 1.70 PPG, Nantes 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Nice have won 1, Nantes 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2021, ended 2–0 with Nice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Nice trading profile (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Nantes trading profile (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nice 40% versus Nantes 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nice 60% | Nantes 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nice 1.13 xG and Nantes 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nice attack 0.912 / defence 1.193 | Nantes attack 0.774 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.102 / away 1.257. Data: 20 Nice games / 20 Nantes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nice 33% | Draw 32% | Nantes 35%. Fair-value odds: Nice 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Nantes 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nantes as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nantes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Nice 50% | Nantes 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nice vs Nantes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Allianz Riviera • Kick-off: Friday 14 Jan 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nice 33% | Draw 32% | Nantes 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Nice 1.13 / Nantes 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Nice attack 0.912 / def 1.193 | Nantes attack 0.774 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.102 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: Nantes (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Nice xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Nantes xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nice vs Nantes kick off?
Nice vs Nantes kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 14 January 2022 at Allianz Riviera.
What was the final score in Nice vs Nantes?
Nice 2 - 1 Nantes.
Where is Nice vs Nantes being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Riviera.
What competition is Nice vs Nantes part of?
Nice vs Nantes is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nice vs Nantes?
Our statistical model gives Nice a 33% chance of winning, Nantes a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Nantes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nice vs Nantes?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Nice and Nantes will score (BTTS).
Will Nice vs Nantes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Nantes?
Record (1 meetings): Nice 1W | Draws 0 | Nantes 0W.
What form are Nice and Nantes in?
Nice (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Nantes (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Nice's attack rating (0.91) and Nantes's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nantes's attack versus Nice's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nantes Win
33%
3.00
32%
3.11
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Nice xG
Total xG
2.29
1.16
Nantes xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
10%
9.58
11%
8.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 11.7 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nice vs Nantes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Nice and Nantes expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Nice and 1.16 for Nantes, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Nice vs Nantes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nice's recent record stands at 11W 4D 5L from 20 games, a 1.85 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Nice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nantes, meanwhile, have gone 8W 5D 7L across 20 games — 1.45 PPG, with L-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Nantes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Nice by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nantes heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Nice have managed 4W 3D 3L from 10 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nantes's away record stands at 3W 3D 4L across 10 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Nice are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Nantes are on 1.25 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Nice have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nice
Blended
Nantes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nice and Nantes in coming into this match?
Nice have gone 11W 4D 5L in their last 20 games (1.85 PPG), while Nantes have gone 8W 5D 7L in their last 20 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nice at home or Nantes away?
Nice's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nice at home: 1.50 PPG; Nantes away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Nice or Nantes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nice have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Nantes in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Nice have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Jan 2026, when Nice won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nice's record when hosting Nantes specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Nice
3
Draws
3
Nantes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Nantes?
From 10 meetings on record, Nice have won 4, Nantes have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nice and Nantes last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Nantes 1-4 Nice.
Who has won more matches between Nice and Nantes?
Nice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Nantes see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nice 50%, Nantes 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Nice) and 30% (Nantes).
On the defensive side: Nice have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nice home games / Nantes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nice play Nantes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Nice's games and 60% of Nantes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nice vs Nantes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Nice's recent games and 30% of Nantes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nice and Nantes tend to score early?
Nice have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Nantes in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nice defy the odds to beat Nantes 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nice beat Nantes 2-1 at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 1.13 xG and Nantes 1.16 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Nice beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 0.91 / defence 1.19 against Nantes attack 0.77 / defence 1.13, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nice 33% | Draw 32% | Nantes 35%, with Nantes to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Nice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 60%, Nantes 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nice's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Nantes's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Nice arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.45. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.